A Decade After South China Sea Arbitration, Regional Stability Must Be Priority

A member of the South China Sea Council, Anak Agung Banyu Perwita, has assessed that maintaining regional stability must be the top priority for ASEAN nations, a decade after the South China Sea arbitration ruling was announced in 2016. According to Banyu, developments over the past decade show that the arbitration ruling has not been able to serve as a final solution for resolving disputes in the South China Sea, as regional security dynamics have become increasingly complex. “The main challenge now is no longer debating the arbitration ruling, but rather how regional countries build a more mature, inclusive, and sustainable governance mechanism,” Banyu said in a statement on Tuesday (14/7). He noted that tensions in the South China Sea persist, marked by increased law enforcement activities at sea, maritime patrols, fisheries surveillance, and disputes over maritime features, exclusive economic zones, and resource exploration. Furthermore, he said, strategic competition among major powers is shaping an increasingly complex regional security landscape. Banyu observed that strengthening defence cooperation, including increased joint patrols and military exercises, can enhance the defence capabilities of several countries on one hand, but on the other hand, it risks deepening the security dilemma—a situation where one state’s steps to improve its security are perceived as a threat by another, thereby fuelling an arms race and increasing mistrust. He also assessed that the arbitration ruling has not yet become a collectively accepted political foundation for all parties involved in the dispute. “Differences in views regarding legal implications, scope of application, and dispute resolution mechanisms mean the political influence of the ruling remains limited,” he said. Therefore, he argued, resolving South China Sea issues still requires diplomacy, crisis management, and sustained regional cooperation. Banyu said Indonesia has a primary interest in maintaining regional peace and stability, given that the country is not a party to the South China Sea arbitration case. He noted that Indonesia’s foreign policy has consistently prioritised peace, security, and regional development through the principles of a free and active foreign policy. According to him, the South China Sea is not only a security issue but also a strategic route for international trade, energy distribution, and ASEAN economic integration. “Any increase in regional tensions has the potential to disrupt supply chains, reduce investor confidence, and weaken the region’s economic growth prospects,” he said. Banyu added that Indonesia continues to push for the resolution of regional security issues through ASEAN-led mechanisms to maintain the organisation’s centrality amid rising geopolitical competition. In this context, he believes accelerating the negotiations for a Code of Conduct (COC) in the South China Sea is a more important agenda than continuing to debate the 2016 arbitration ruling. He noted that COC discussions between ASEAN and China in recent years demonstrate efforts to build common rules through consultation and dialogue, including mechanisms for crisis management, maritime cooperation, and confidence-building. He said an effective COC would help reduce the risk of incidents at sea, strengthen crisis communication mechanisms, increase transparency of maritime activities, and provide an institutional framework for dispute management. “Support for the COC negotiations aligns with Indonesia’s interest in maintaining regional stability while strengthening ASEAN-led regional security governance,” he stated. Banyu opined that the experience of the past decade shows that resolving South China Sea disputes cannot rely solely on a single legal instrument, as the issue is also influenced by political, historical, and security dimensions. He expressed hope that ASEAN and China can continue to prioritise dialogue, build common rules, and strengthen cooperation so that the South China Sea can develop into a region that supports connectivity, shared prosperity, and sustainable peace. “ASEAN and China should transform the South China Sea from an arena of contestation into an arena of collaboration,” Banyu said.