6,000 CEOs Reveal Unexpected Fact: AI Proves Useless So Far
Artificial Intelligence (AI) has apparently not yet had a significant impact on the business world. A study involving nearly 6,000 chief executives across the United States, United Kingdom, Germany, and Australia found that the majority of business leaders have not seen any meaningful change, either in productivity or employment levels, as a result of AI adoption.
According to the research by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), more than 80% of respondents reported no clear impact from AI on their workforce or productivity. This is despite the fact that adoption rates are already high, with 69% of companies currently using AI in some form and 75% expecting to adopt it within the next three years. The most common uses include text generation via large language models (LLMs), visual content creation, and data processing with machine learning. However, over 90% of managers stated that AI has not affected their headcount in the past three years, and 89% saw no significant change in productivity as measured by sales per employee.
Looking ahead, executives are more optimistic, projecting that AI will begin to deliver tangible results within three years. The NBER study estimates that AI could eliminate around 1.75 million jobs across the four countries by 2028, while potentially boosting business productivity by 1.4%. The authors suggest this could help reverse a long-term slowdown in productivity growth in developed nations. Interestingly, the study also noted a divergence in views: employees tend to believe AI will create more jobs over the next three years, albeit with smaller productivity gains.
These findings add to mounting evidence that AI’s commercial benefits have yet to meet market expectations. A PwC survey of over 4,500 business leaders found that more than half saw no revenue increase or cost reduction after adopting AI. Deloitte research revealed that while 74% of organisations are eager for AI to boost revenue, only 20% have actually experienced such gains. Even internal trials, such as a UK government department’s test of Microsoft M365 Copilot, found no overall productivity improvement, with some tasks becoming faster but others being hindered. Microsoft executive Jared Spataro has also acknowledged the difficulty in demonstrating a clear return on investment for Copilot, as much knowledge work is not directly reflected in revenue or profit metrics.
Despite the sobering data, some tech leaders remain bullish. Microsoft’s AI chief Mustafa Suleyman recently claimed that most computer-based work will be fully automated by AI within 12 to 18 months, particularly in accounting, law, marketing, and project management. Meanwhile, Lenovo reported that companies in Europe and the Middle East are accelerating AI adoption, with 94% of respondents expecting a positive return on investment. Overall, the findings suggest that current AI implementation is delivering only very limited productivity gains, a stark contrast to the hundreds of billions of dollars being poured into AI development by technology giants.