5 things to know about Negeri Sembilan’s state polls on Aug 1 - a high-stakes test for Anwar’s PH
5 things to know about Negeri Sembilan’s state polls on Aug 1 - a high-stakes test for Anwar’s PH
Interest is centred on whether Pakatan Harapan can rebound from a dismal performance in the Jul 11 Johor state election and fend off a challenge from a partner teaming up with a rival.
KUALA LUMPUR/SINGAPORE: Nearly 900,000 eligible voters in Negeri Sembilan could head to the ballot boxes on Saturday (Aug 1) in a state election widely seen as a high-stakes test for Malaysia Prime Minister Anwar Ibahim and his Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition.
All eyes will be on whether PH can rebound from a dismal performance in the Jul 11 Johor polls, retain a state where it is the incumbent, and fend off a challenge from a partner teaming up with a rival.
PH is contesting all 36 seats in the Negeri Sembilan state legislative assembly.
Its partner at the federal level, Barisan Nasional (BN), has fielded candidates in 25 of those seats in an alliance with opposition coalition Perikatan Nasional (PN), which is contesting the remaining 11 seats.
Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu), a PN member, is contesting in the election on its own and fielding 24 candidates, setting up contests against its coalition partners amid rifts within the opposition bloc.
The PN-BN pact is widely seen as the clearest sign yet that the federal unity government may not last until the next general election, due by February 2028, even as BN chairman Ahmad Zahid Hamidi insists it will stick with Anwar’s unity government until the current federal parliament’s term ends.
Analysts have said after losing ground in the Johor state election, another PH setback in Negeri Sembilan will pile pressure on Anwar to dissolve the federal parliament, paving the way for a snap general election.
Retaining control of Negeri Sembilan would hand Anwar an equaliser, showing he can campaign effectively in a state led by a chief minister from his own party.
It will not be an easy task, experts have said.
The BN-PN pact is likely to consolidate the crucial Malay vote at the expense of PH, observers said, giving them an edge in Negeri Sembilan.
The United Malays National Organisation (UMNO), BN’s lynchpin party, won 14 seats in the 2023 state polls while PH secured 17 and PN won five.
Before the state assembly was dissolved, Negeri Sembilan was governed by a PH-BN administration, replicating a power-sharing model of the federal unity government.
To form the government in Negeri Sembilan, 19 seats are needed.
WHEN WILL RESULTS BE OUT?
Early voting took place on Tuesday, with the turnout of over 91 per cent exceeding the target set by the Election Commission (EC).
A total of 14,995 early voters, consisting of military and police personnel as well as their spouses, cast their ballots at 38 polling centres statewide, news agency Bernama reported.
Most voters will however cast their ballots on Saturday between 8am and 6pm.
The EC is targeting a turnout of between 72 and 75 per cent, its chairman Ramlan Harun said, citing the “lively campaign atmosphere”.
The turnout was 68 per cent in the 2023 polls, according to news outlet The Edge.
Ramlan said on Friday that the full results of Saturday’s polls would be announced before midnight, with preliminary results expected from around 10pm, reported Malay Mail.
In the 2023 state polls, the EC announced at about 10pm that the PH and BN alliance had secured a two-thirds majority, although unofficial results began emerging earlier.
WHAT ARE THE POSSIBLE OUTCOMES?
Ong Kian Ming, a Democratic Action Party (DAP) member and former deputy minister, has predicted that BN-PN is likely to win between 23 and 25 seats in Negeri Sembilan.
“With the electoral pact between PN and BN, it is very likely that Malay support for both of these coalitions will exceed 70 per cent and allow candidates from both coalitions to avoid splitting the Malay vote, which allowed PH to win a number of seats in the state elections in 2018,” he wrote in a commentary published by local media on Jul 27.
In the 2018 election, PH had contested in three-cornered fights against BN and Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS) in the majority of seats.
In the 2023 polls, BN scraped through with narrow majorities across multiple seats, while PAS made history by capturing its first-ever seats in the state on the back of rising Malay-majority support.
PAS is the dominant party in PN while DAP is part of PH.
Think tank Ilham Centre predicts that the PN-BN alliance is on track to win at least 22 seats to form a “stable majority”, while PH is projected to win at least nine seats.
The remaining five seats are difficult to predict, it said.
Political analyst Adib Zalkapli of Viewfinder Global Affairs said PH would “need a miracle” to retain Negeri Sembilan but if it does, it would be a “huge relief” for the prime minister.
“It would also provide a much-needed boost, allowing Anwar to argue that his position at the federal level remains secure and that he continues to enjoy strong political support,” he told CNA.
Observers also previously said that a hung assembly remains a distinct possibility - with PN-BN and PH each garnering 18 seats as neither fails to reach the 19-seat threshold for a majority.
“We can expect prolonged negotiations between the coalitions once the final votes have been counted,” Adib said.
“Should no coalition secure a clear majority, the (ruler) is likely to play its constitutional role in facilitating the formation of a stable Negeri Sembilan government,” he added.
With PN’s cooperation with BN expected to consolidate the Malay vote, Adib said the election would provide a test of whether the pact could become a viable model in other parts of Malaysia.
“How the Malays vote in Negeri Sembilan will determine if the alliance should be replicated elsewhere,” he told CNA.
Socio-political analyst Awang Azman Awang Pawi of Universiti Malaya said that although the prevailing view is that BN-PN alliance has the advantage, Anwar’s PH still has a “genuine, though slim ch