30 Million People Expected to Return Home in This Province, Cities Set to Become Quiet

Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - The Ministry of Transport has forecast that during the 2026 Lebaran Transport Operation, the largest movement of returning travellers will originate from West Java with 30.97 million people, followed by Jakarta (19.93 million) and East Java (17.12 million). In terms of destinations, the largest flow will be directed to Central Java at 38.71 million people, followed by East Java (27.29 million) and West Java (25.09 million).

These figures are based on a national survey conducted by the Transport Policy Agency (BKT) under the Ministry of Transport. According to the same survey, the total projected movement of people during the 2026 Lebaran Transport Operation is 50.60% of the population, or 143.91 million people.

“This is the basis for us to continue preparing the 2026 Lebaran Transport Operation comprehensively,” said Transport Minister Dudy Purwagandhi during a Coordination Meeting for the Preparation of the 2026 Lebaran Transport Operation at the Ministry of Transport’s head office in Jakarta on Tuesday evening, 24 February 2026.

At district and municipal level, travel origins are dominated by densely populated areas such as East Jakarta, Bogor Regency, and Bekasi Regency. Destinations are heavily concentrated in districts across Central Java. The largest population movements from the Greater Jakarta area originate from Bogor Regency and Tangerang Regency, with Central Java being the favourite destination for Greater Jakarta residents.

Based on the same survey, the Ministry of Transport notes that private cars will be the most dominant transport mode used, accounting for 76.24 million people, followed by motorcycles (24.08 million people) and buses (23.34 million people). Regarding routes, the majority of car users prefer toll roads at 50.63 million people, whilst motorcycle users predominantly choose alternative routes outside main highways at 8.65 million people.

“We urge the public to use public transport in order to increase safety, reduce traffic congestion, and lower the risk of accidents due to high mobility during Lebaran,” said the Transport Minister.

The ministry also forecasts the busiest transport hubs during the 2026 Lebaran operation. The busiest departure railway station will be Pasar Senen Station with 2.38 million people, whilst the busiest arrival station will be Yogyakarta Tugu Station with 867,000 people. The busiest departure airport will be Soekarno Hatta Airport with 2.13 million people, and the busiest arrival airport will also be Soekarno Hatta Airport with 1.05 million people.

The busiest departure terminal will be Pulo Gebang Terminal with 2.31 million people and the busiest arrival terminal will be Tirtonadi Terminal with 1.44 million people. The busiest departure port will be Tanjung Priok Port with 214,000 people, and the busiest arrival port will be Tanjung Perak Port with 158,000 people. The busiest ferry crossing will be Merak - Bakauheuni at 6.06 million people.

The Ministry of Transport has prepared supporting transport infrastructure for the 2026 Lebaran operation. For land transport, 31,000 buses have been prepared with a capacity to carry 1.25 million passengers.

For maritime transport, 829 vessels have been prepared with a capacity to carry 3.26 million passengers, and 636 maritime ports. For ferry crossings, 255 vessels have been prepared with a capacity to carry 6.15 million passengers and 770,000 vehicles across 15 ferry routes and 29 ports.

For air transport, 392 serviceable aircraft have been prepared across 257 airports. For railway transport, 3,821 transport units have been prepared across 668 stations.

As in previous years, the government is again providing transport fare discounts to the public, including 100% discount on ferry fares for port services or equivalent to 21.9% of integrated tickets, during 12-31 March 2026 (for 20 days).

Maritime transport discounts of 30% for all PSO PELNI vessel routes in economic class are available during 11 March-5 April 2026 (for 26 days). Railway discounts of 30% for economy tickets are available during 14-29 March 2026 (for 16 days). Air transport discounts of 17-18% apply to economy tickets on domestic flights during 14-29 March 2026 (for 16 days) for ticket purchases from 10 February 2026 onwards.

To help the public travel safely and comfortably during the Lebaran return migration, thereby reducing private vehicle use and managing traffic density, the Ministry of Transport has prepared a free travel programme, including:

Land transport to 34 destination cities across 9 provinces, using 401 buses (15,834 passengers) and 8 trucks (240 motorcycles) during the outbound period (16-18 March 2026) and return period (24-25 March 2026).

Railway transport on Java Island routes including the Northern Line, Central Line, and Southern Line for 28,182 passengers and 11,900 motorcycles, during the outbound period (13-19 March 2026) and return period (24-30 March 2026).

Maritime transport with a quota of 50,000 economy passengers during 11 March-5 April 2026.

Regarding regulation and traffic management, a Joint Ministerial Decree (SKB) concerning the 2026 Lebaran Transport Operation has been drawn up in coordination with the National Police and the Ministry of Public Works. Restrictions apply to vehicles with three or more axles, except for vehicles carrying fuel/gas, fertiliser, disaster relief, livestock, and basic commodities.

“We also urge all parties to ensure that cargo transport vehicles in operation do not carry overloaded or over-dimensioned cargo to ensure collective safety,” said Dudy.