2027: Prabowo Targets Rupiah at 16,800–17,500 per US Dollar

The government targets the rupiah at around Rp 16,800 to Rp 17,500 per US dollar in the Macroeconomic Framework and Fiscal Policy Principles (KEM-PPKF) for the 2027 fiscal year. This was conveyed by President Prabowo Subianto in a Plenary Session of the DPRRI as he presented the KEM-PPKF 2027 document in Jakarta on Wednesday, 20 May 2026. “Our fiscal and monetary strategy must be one that can keep our exchange rate stable against world currencies,” Prabowo said, cited by Antara. The macro assumptions are set in the face of heavy pressure on the domestic currency, which briefly touched an all-time low at Rp 17,706 per US dollar at the close of mid-May 2026. Through a measured mix of fiscal policy, the government projects domestic inflation can be tightly controlled within 1.5 to 3.5% to support purchasing power and exchange-rate stability. These rupiah exchange-rate assumptions supplement other macro-fiscal indicators, including the target for the 10-year Government Securities (SBN) yields at 6.5-7.3%. On the fiscal side, the government plans the 2027 APBN deficit to be in the range of 1.8 to 2.4% of GDP. This reflects a strong commitment to curb and narrow the budget deficit, given the 2025 deficit of 2.92%, which was 0.8 percentage points below the 3% ceiling. State expenditure is to be allocated at roughly 13.62 to 14.80% of GDP to fund national priority programmes, while government revenue is targeted at 11.82 to 12.40% of GDP. With sustainable fiscal management, the government expects national economic growth to reach around 5.8 to 6.5% in 2027 as a stepping stone towards an 8% growth target in 2029. In the energy commodity sector, fiscal stability will be underpinned by assumptions for Indonesia’s crude oil price in the range of US$70 to 95 per barrel, oil lifting of 602 to 615 thousand barrels per day, and gas lifting of 934 to 977 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day. Furthermore, Prabowo stressed that the exchange-rate stability and economic growth are aimed at reducing poverty to between 6.0% and 6.5% and lowering the open unemployment rate to between 4.3% and 4.87%. The Head of State spoke directly before the DPR in the macroeconomic framework and KEM-PPKF RAPBN 2027 during the DPR’s 19th Plenary Session for the 2025-2026 session year. Prabowo is also the first Indonesian President to present the RAPBN overview, which includes the macro framework and fiscal policy fundamentals, to DPR members. The meeting was attended by 451 DPR members, reaching a quorum as determined by DPR Speaker Puan Maharani. In attendance were President Prabowo’s Deputy Gibran Rakabuming Raka and the Red-and-White Cabinet, as well as Bank Indonesia Governor Perry Warjiyo, OJK Chairman Friderica Widyasari Dewi, and Deposit Insurance Corporation Chair Anggito Abimanyu. The plenary discussed three main agendas: presentation of the KEM-PPKF RAPBN 2027 by the government; the Legislative Body’s report on the evaluation of second changes to the 2026 Priority Prolegnas RUU, followed by decisions; and party opinions on the DPR Commission III initiative bill to amend Law No. 2 of 2002 on the Indonesian Police, followed by a decision to advance as a DPR-proposed bill. Editor’s Note: Effects of the Rupiah Securities Surge Bank Indonesia