2026 Tax Revenue Projected to Miss Target by Up to Rp 484 Trillion, See the Indicators

Jakarta – The Center of Reform on Economics (CORE) Indonesia projects that tax revenue in 2026 could miss the target by between Rp 171 trillion and Rp 484 trillion.

CORE’s Macroeconomic Research Director, Akhmad Akbar Susamto, stated during a public discussion on the Quarterly Economic Review for Q1-2026 in Jakarta on Wednesday, 29 April 2026, that although tax revenue performance in Q1-2026 showed positive growth, it is temporary in nature.

“This large range reflects the high uncertainty regarding the state’s revenue capacity,” said Akbar, quoted on Thursday, 30 April 2026.

Data from the Ministry of Finance indicates that tax revenue realisation in Q1-2026 reached Rp 394.8 trillion, or 16.7% of the Rp 2,364 trillion target, lower than the 20.7% achievement in the same period of 2023 and 18.0% in 2024.

On a monthly basis, net tax grew significantly in January by 30.7% and February by 30.1%, but sharply slowed to 7.6% in March as Ramadan activities subsided.

Moreover, the revenue structure is deemed not yet robust. Nearly 40% of revenue is supported by consumption taxes, namely Value Added Tax (VAT) and Luxury Goods Sales Tax (PPnBM), which grew by 57.7%.

On the other hand, taxes reflecting real economic activity, such as Corporate Income Tax (PPh) and Final Income Tax, grew by only 5.4% and 5.1%, respectively.

According to CORE, this situation indicates that revenue growth is more driven by seasonal factors, such as Ramadan and Eid, rather than structural strengthening.

“The increase that has occurred is more temporary and does not yet reflect expansion of the tax base, improved compliance, or strengthened economic activity,” said Akbar.

CORE estimates that total tax revenue for the entire year of 2026 will only be in the range of Rp 1,880 trillion to Rp 2,193 trillion, below the government target. To anticipate the potential shortfall, CORE urges the government to accelerate the implementation of the Coretax system and consider expanding windfall tax policies in the energy and mining sectors.

Windfall tax is an additional tax imposed on unexpected company profits, for example, due to surges in global commodity prices.

“Surges in commodity prices due to geopolitical escalation can provide additional profits for businesses, which can be utilised as an alternative revenue source,” he said.