2026 Forest Fires Enter 'Code Red', Major Haze Risk Looms

Professor Bambang Hero Sahardjo of IPB University has warned that the threat of forest and land fires (karhutla) for 2026 has entered a ‘red code’ stage, following an increase in fire incidents even before the peak of the dry season and before the El Niño phenomenon has fully developed.

According to Bambang, the current surge in forest fires is a serious danger signal that should not be underestimated by local governments or the community. “If local governments and the community do not take the small fires appearing now seriously with early vigilance, we are at high risk of repeating the massive haze disasters of 2015 or 2019,” Bambang said during an interview on Thursday.

He likened the current situation to a war against fire while water reserves are increasingly limited due to drying weather conditions. “We are fighting fire with increasingly dry terrain, while our water weapons are becoming more limited. The rise in cases now is a final warning that this summer will not be ordinary,” he stated.

Bambang assessed that the increase in fires during non-extreme weather also indicates issues with prevention at the field level. This may indicate that several fire control infrastructures, such as canal blocks in peatlands, are not functioning optimally in maintaining soil moisture.

Furthermore, he suspects that land clearing practices through burning are still occurring. Perpetrators are believed to assume that the land is still sufficiently wet so that the fire will not spread, even though drying peat is highly flammable and difficult to extinguish.

Bambang also highlighted the recurrence of fires in the same peat areas year after year. According to him, the root of the problem is not merely the limitation of firefighting technology, but rather the economic factor that makes burning land remain the cheapest method for land clearing.

“The problem of peat fires has not been resolved because technical solutions are weaker than economic solutions. As long as non-burning land clearing is considered too expensive and law enforcement does not provide a deterrent effect commensurate with the profits obtained, haze will continue to appear every year,” he said.

Nevertheless, Bambang believes that Indonesia is currently much better prepared for forest fires compared to the major haze crises of 2015 and 2019. Early warning systems, inter-agency coordination, and the readiness of personnel and equipment are considered much improved.

However, he warned that the natural threats faced this year are also heavier. In his view, the rapid transition from three years of La Niña to El Niño has the potential to create highly fire-prone conditions, as much of the vegetation that previously grew lushly will dry out quickly and turn into fuel.

Additionally, water availability is expected to be a major challenge entering the peak of the dry season. Boreholes may run dry, and water bombing operations could be disrupted if the haze becomes too thick.

Bambang also warned that economic pressure could drive some parties to clear land illegally through burning to save production costs. He emphasised that if the trend of increasing hotspots and burned areas continues through the upcoming July-September period, the risk of a national-scale haze disaster will be very high.

“It is not impossible that we will see a repetition of the 2015 or 2019 crisis scenarios. We are at a critical moment. If aggressive preventive action is not taken in the next few weeks, the government will only be performing firefighting that is much more expensive and less effective when the peak of the dry season arrives,” said Bambang.

Therefore, he urged the government to immediately strengthen peatland wetting efforts, ensure all prevention infrastructure is functioning optimally, and increase law enforcement against land burners before the dry season reaches its peak.