2026 Dry Season Predicted to Be Longer, Peaking in August
The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) notes that by the end of March 2026, several regions in Indonesia will have already entered the dry season. BMKG predicts that most parts of Indonesia will begin the dry season in April, May, and June 2026.
Quoting the official BMKG website, BMKG Chief Teuku Faisal Fathani explained that the regions already entering the dry season include:
A small part of Aceh
A small part of North Sumatra
A small part of Riau
Part of Central Sulawesi
Part of South Sulawesi
Part of Southeast Sulawesi
A small part of NTB
A small part of NTT and Maluku
A small part of West Papua.
“BMKG will continue to monitor developments in global and regional climate dynamics and provide periodic updates on information. The public is urged to continue following official information provided by BMKG through various available communication channels,” said Faisal in Jakarta on Sunday (5/4).
On the other hand, BMKG’s Deputy for Climatology, Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan, explained that BMKG also predicts the possibility of the El Niño phenomenon developing in the second semester of this year. Until the end of March 2026, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are still observed in the Neutral phase. However, climate modelling indicates that ENSO could develop into the El Niño phase in the second semester of 2026.
“At present, BMKG’s prediction for the intensity of El Niño is in the weak to moderate category with a 50-80% chance, and notes a small possibility (less than 20%) that this phenomenon will develop into the strong category,” he stated.
Prediction: 2026 Dry Season to Be Drier and Longer
BMKG reminds of the importance of caution in interpreting current prediction data due to the spring predictability barrier phenomenon—a drastic decline in the accuracy of weather and climate model predictions for ENSO as the Northern Hemisphere passes through the spring period (March, April, May). The accuracy of El Niño predictions produced in the March-April period is generally reliable only for forecasts three months ahead, thus requiring expertise in understanding multi-factor interactions that cause the birth of El Niño conditions and their teleconnection impacts on Indonesian regions.
Therefore, BMKG needs to continue monitoring data updates periodically and assessing their developments.
In line with that, confidence in the intensity of El Niño will be higher in the May 2026 prediction results. Statistically, predictions in May have better reliability for covering climate conditions up to six months ahead.
“Although the exact intensity is still developing, BMKG emphasises that the 2026 dry season is predicted to be drier and last longer than the normal average, also as a contribution from the natural climate variability in Indonesian regions,” he explained.
Peak of 2026 Dry Season Estimated in August
Based on the “Prediction of the 2026 Dry Season in Indonesia” released by BMKG, most regions of Indonesia are predicted to experience the peak of the dry season in August 2026. Here are other things to know regarding the 2026 dry season prediction in Indonesia.
Most regions of Indonesia are predicted to enter the dry season in the April period (114 ZOM; 16.3%), May (184 ZOM; 26.3%), and June 2026 (163 ZOM; 23.3%), starting from the Nusa Tenggara region and then gradually to other Indonesian regions.
The start of the dry season in most regions of Indonesia is predicted to come earlier or advance (325 ZOM; 46.5%) and the same as normal (173 ZOM; 23.7%).
Rainfall accumulation during the dry season period in most of Indonesia (451 ZOM; 64.5%) is predicted to be in the below normal category or drier than usual.
Most regions of Indonesia (429 ZOM; 61.4%) are predicted to experience the peak of the dry season in August 2026.
The peak of the dry season in Indonesia is mostly predicted to occur earlier or advance (410 ZOM; 58.7%) and the same as normal (142 ZOM; 20.3%).
Most regions of Indonesia (400 ZOM; 57.2%) are predicted to experience a dry season longer than normal.