2026 Dry Season Predicted to be Drier than the Last 30 Years Average, Beware of Its Impacts

The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) predicts that the 2026 dry season will be drier compared to the average of the last 30 years. Nevertheless, this condition does not mean it will be the most extreme dry season, as widely mentioned in public discourse. Director of Climate Change at BMKG, Fachri Rajab, emphasised that terms such as “Godzilla El Niño” or “the worst dry season” are not scientifically accurate. BMKG records indicate that, historically, the dry seasons of 1997 and 2015 were far more extreme. However, the 2026 condition is predicted to be drier than recent years, including 2023. “This year’s dry season is relatively drier than the 30-year average, but not the worst,” he stated during a discussion on the 76th World Meteorological Day in Jakarta on Tuesday (14/4/2026), quoted from Antara. This situation is influenced by the El Niño phenomenon becoming active from late April to early May 2026. This phenomenon causes a decrease in rainfall in various regions of Indonesia. However, Fachri clarified that El Niño and the dry season are two different things. “In Indonesia, there is still a dry season every year, with or without El Niño,” he explained. In addition, the combination of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) phenomenon could worsen the dry conditions, as it inhibits the formation of rain clouds in Indonesian regions. Head of the Jakarta Health Service, Ani Ruspitawati, urged residents to avoid outdoor activities from 11:00 to 15:00 WIB.