2004 elections: What is happening in the Kampongs?

2004 elections: What is happening in the Kampongs?

Rob Goodfellow, University of Wollongong, New South Wales, Australia

On April 5, 2004 voters will select candidates for the House
of Representatives (DPR), Provincial Legislative Council (DPRD
I), Regional Legislative Council for regencies (DPRD II), and the
Regional Representatives Council (DPD).

With less than three months until 143,000,000 registered
voters cast their ballot at one of 300,000 polling booths,
Indonesian constituent opinions and trends are being subjected to
unprecedented analysis.

But what about the majority of Indonesians who live in small
semi-urban kampung communities? Their voice is harder to hear --
and to understand.

The original use of the term kampung described the "native
quarter" in one of the Dutch colonial capitals. The Europeans
lived in areas that had wide paved roads and grand western-style
housing. The "natives" lived in the kampungs. The racial
connotation is no longer valid. The social differentiation
remains.

Now the Indonesian urban elite inhabit the areas that were
once the exclusive domain of the Dutch. The orang kecil, or "the
ordinary people", live in hundreds of thousands of semi-urban
kampung communities, mostly across Indonesia's most populous
Island of Java.

During the Soeharto era the orang kecil were expected to
assume the role of "floating mass" -- never involved in the
mechanisms of policy development or implementation. In 2004 the
position of the orang kecil is very different.

However, the claim of any particular kampung being
representative of a greater whole is open to question. Is the
experience of people in one kampung the exception that proves the
rule? The answer is that all of the pieces of the puzzle
contribute to an understanding of the whole.

In February 2003 a qualitative survey carried out by ACNielsen
and Charney Research of New York for the Asia Foundation
involving both city and peri-urban (kampung) communities revealed
discontent with the direction of the country and the work of the
government, concern about the economy, justice and corruption,
and uncertainty about the new electoral system.

A broad social survey, also involving kampung voters,
conducted in October 2003 by International Foundation for
Election Systems (IFES), revealed that Indonesians were worried
by the lack of job opportunities, by education and health costs,
as well as corruption, poor law enforcement and legal
uncertainty. In the IFES poll 72 percent of respondents were
dissatisfied with the governments reform of the economy.

In the last days of Ramadhan 2003, during a period of
contemplation for many Indonesians, Eva Pitaloka from the
Yogyakarta-based Woman's Information Network (WIN), conducted
field interviews in a randomly chosen semi-urban kampung
community of 100 households -- religion or ethnicity was not
solicited. The gender mix was equal. All subjects were voting
adults.

Rather the purpose of the anonymous survey was to solicit a
voter sentiment "snapshot" across a range of questions from: What
were the respondents most important day to day concerns? What did
the respondent feel were the most pressing problems facing
Indonesia? Was the government doing a good job? What party would
the respondent support in 2004? And whom would they vote for in
the direct presidential election?

Answers to question one were dominated by concerns about
unemployment -- 30 percent, insufficient money to buy food and
the rising cost of living -- 40 percent, worry about family and
children -- 20 percent and anxiety about farming practices (in
particular yields) -- 10 percent.

In response to the question about problems facing Indonesia,
corruption -- frequently expressed in the WIN survey as
"dishonestly", and a breakdown in religious values dominated at
80 percent. Rising costs and unemployment mirrored day to day
issues as expressed in answers to question one.

In reply to the question: Was the government doing a good job?
a surprising 85 percent expressed that they had not made up their
mind about the government's performance. Five percent had a
strong opinion that the government was not doing a good job An
equal number said the government "could do worse".

Significantly five percent refused to answer the question
because they felt it might incriminate them. Not one respondent
categorically stated that the government was doing "a good job".

A confused and irregular pattern of responses typified answers
to questions four and five. Forty percent said they would vote
for Golkar Party, National Mandate Party (PAN) -- 10 percent,
National Awakening Party (PKB) -- 10 percent and finally
Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) -- 5 percent.
Thirty-five percent said that they did not hold an opinion or had
not made up their mind. No other party was mentioned,
notwithstanding the fact that there are some 24 political parties
competing in the election.

Despite the fact that the overwhelming majority of voters in
this particular kampung said they would support Golkar in 2004,
not one respondent mentioned the name of a potential Golkar
presidential candidate. PAN leader Amien Rais scored 30 percent.
(A surprising 40 percent said that former President Soeharto
should become president again.

Former President, Abdurrahman Wahid or "Gus Dur", who is not a
presidential candidate in 2004, also scored 20 percent.) The
survey therefore shows a poor knowledge of presidential
candidates with both former leaders Soeharto and Abdurrahman
Wahid scoring highly as choices of potential national leader in
2004.

The current serving President Megawati Soekarnoputri was not
specifically mentioned in the survey.

Considering that this particular kampung supported Golkar en
mass during the Soeharto era, and reportedly shifted loyalty to a
combination of PKB, PAN and the PDI-P during the 1999 reformasi
election, the results show a return to Golkar -- or perhaps
nostalgia for the Soeharto-era, an abandonment of the PDI-P, and
the consignment of Megawati to a position of local irrelevance.

Of concern for the PDI-P is that Megawati did not appear on
this particular kampungs "radar screen", and people were not
clear if her government had served them well or not. Of concern
for all parties is that local disquiet about corruption, and a
perceived breakdown in religious values may not have been
adequately addressed in policies that will be presented to the
electorate in the coming months.