2004 elections: What is happening in the Kampongs?

Rob Goodfellow, University of Wollongong, New South Wales, Australia

On April 5, 2004 voters will select candidates for the House of Representatives (DPR), Provincial Legislative Council (DPRD I), Regional Legislative Council for regencies (DPRD II), and the Regional Representatives Council (DPD).

With less than three months until 143,000,000 registered voters cast their ballot at one of 300,000 polling booths, Indonesian constituent opinions and trends are being subjected to unprecedented analysis.

But what about the majority of Indonesians who live in small semi-urban kampung communities? Their voice is harder to hear -- and to understand.

The original use of the term kampung described the "native quarter" in one of the Dutch colonial capitals. The Europeans lived in areas that had wide paved roads and grand western-style housing. The "natives" lived in the kampungs. The racial connotation is no longer valid. The social differentiation remains.

Now the Indonesian urban elite inhabit the areas that were once the exclusive domain of the Dutch. The orang kecil, or "the ordinary people", live in hundreds of thousands of semi-urban kampung communities, mostly across Indonesia's most populous Island of Java.

During the Soeharto era the orang kecil were expected to assume the role of "floating mass" -- never involved in the mechanisms of policy development or implementation. In 2004 the position of the orang kecil is very different.

However, the claim of any particular kampung being representative of a greater whole is open to question. Is the experience of people in one kampung the exception that proves the rule? The answer is that all of the pieces of the puzzle contribute to an understanding of the whole.

In February 2003 a qualitative survey carried out by ACNielsen and Charney Research of New York for the Asia Foundation involving both city and peri-urban (kampung) communities revealed discontent with the direction of the country and the work of the government, concern about the economy, justice and corruption, and uncertainty about the new electoral system.

A broad social survey, also involving kampung voters, conducted in October 2003 by International Foundation for Election Systems (IFES), revealed that Indonesians were worried by the lack of job opportunities, by education and health costs, as well as corruption, poor law enforcement and legal uncertainty. In the IFES poll 72 percent of respondents were dissatisfied with the governments reform of the economy.

In the last days of Ramadhan 2003, during a period of contemplation for many Indonesians, Eva Pitaloka from the Yogyakarta-based Woman's Information Network (WIN), conducted field interviews in a randomly chosen semi-urban kampung community of 100 households -- religion or ethnicity was not solicited. The gender mix was equal. All subjects were voting adults.

Rather the purpose of the anonymous survey was to solicit a voter sentiment "snapshot" across a range of questions from: What were the respondents most important day to day concerns? What did the respondent feel were the most pressing problems facing Indonesia? Was the government doing a good job? What party would the respondent support in 2004? And whom would they vote for in the direct presidential election?

Answers to question one were dominated by concerns about unemployment -- 30 percent, insufficient money to buy food and the rising cost of living -- 40 percent, worry about family and children -- 20 percent and anxiety about farming practices (in particular yields) -- 10 percent.

In response to the question about problems facing Indonesia, corruption -- frequently expressed in the WIN survey as "dishonestly", and a breakdown in religious values dominated at 80 percent. Rising costs and unemployment mirrored day to day issues as expressed in answers to question one.

In reply to the question: Was the government doing a good job? a surprising 85 percent expressed that they had not made up their mind about the government's performance. Five percent had a strong opinion that the government was not doing a good job An equal number said the government "could do worse".

Significantly five percent refused to answer the question because they felt it might incriminate them. Not one respondent categorically stated that the government was doing "a good job".

A confused and irregular pattern of responses typified answers to questions four and five. Forty percent said they would vote for Golkar Party, National Mandate Party (PAN) -- 10 percent, National Awakening Party (PKB) -- 10 percent and finally Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) -- 5 percent. Thirty-five percent said that they did not hold an opinion or had not made up their mind. No other party was mentioned, notwithstanding the fact that there are some 24 political parties competing in the election.

Despite the fact that the overwhelming majority of voters in this particular kampung said they would support Golkar in 2004, not one respondent mentioned the name of a potential Golkar presidential candidate. PAN leader Amien Rais scored 30 percent. (A surprising 40 percent said that former President Soeharto should become president again.

Former President, Abdurrahman Wahid or "Gus Dur", who is not a presidential candidate in 2004, also scored 20 percent.) The survey therefore shows a poor knowledge of presidential candidates with both former leaders Soeharto and Abdurrahman Wahid scoring highly as choices of potential national leader in 2004.

The current serving President Megawati Soekarnoputri was not specifically mentioned in the survey.

Considering that this particular kampung supported Golkar en mass during the Soeharto era, and reportedly shifted loyalty to a combination of PKB, PAN and the PDI-P during the 1999 reformasi election, the results show a return to Golkar -- or perhaps nostalgia for the Soeharto-era, an abandonment of the PDI-P, and the consignment of Megawati to a position of local irrelevance.

Of concern for the PDI-P is that Megawati did not appear on this particular kampungs "radar screen", and people were not clear if her government had served them well or not. Of concern for all parties is that local disquiet about corruption, and a perceived breakdown in religious values may not have been adequately addressed in policies that will be presented to the electorate in the coming months.