2004 elections: Party without candidate, candidate sans party

Muhammad Qodari, Indonesian Survey Institute, (LSI), Jakarta, qodari@lsi.or.id

In the 1999 elections it was widely believed that the number of votes won by the six largest parties had a high correlation to the popularity of its leaders. One might say that the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) secured the majority of votes due to people's support for its leader, Megawati Soekarnoputri.

The same correlation applied in explaining the relation between the Golkar Party and BJ Habibie, the National Awakening Party (PKB) and Abdurrahman Wahid, the National Mandate Party (PAN) and Amien Rais, and the Crescent Star Party (PBB) and Yusril Ihza Mahendra. The only exception perhaps would be the relation between the United Development Party (PPP) and Hamzah Haz.

But according to recent surveys by various organizations, including one carried out by the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI) in August 2003, this belief is not -- or at least, no longer -- true. Our nationwide survey, for example, found that if the election were held today (the day the survey interviews were conducted), the winner would be Golkar, which was supported by 31 percent of respondents.

PDI Perjuangan would finish in second place with only 21 percent of the vote, followed by PKB (11 percent), PPP (10 percent) and PAN (5 percent).

It is interesting to compare the above results on party choice with findings from the same survey on presidential choice. If the presidential election was held today, the candidate with the most support would be Megawati Soekarnoputri (20 percent).

Surprisingly, in second would be Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (13 percent), an independent figure who is not (yet) affiliated with any major party. The two were followed by five candidates from major parties who gained more or less the same number of votes (8 percent to 9 percent): Hamzah Haz, Akbar Tanjung, Abdurrahman Wahid, Amien Rais and Yusril Ihza Mahendra.

Comparing both results, we can categorize the relationship between parties and candidates into three groups. The first group is where the popularity of parties and candidates are more or less equal. Included in this group would be PDI Perjuangan and Megawati, PPP and Hamzah, PKB and Wahid, and PAN and Amien.

The second group is where the party is much more popular than the candidate, a group which applies only to Golkar and Akbar. At LSI, we coined the term "party without figure" to refer to this phenomenon.

The third group refers to Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and Yusril. Susilo is often associated with the Democrat Party (PD), a new party without any clear chance in the upcoming elections. As for Yusril, his popularity far exceeds that of PBB. We call this phenomenon "figure without party".

From the above findings, the stark contrast is between PDI Perjuangan and Golkar. PDI Perjuangan may not be the winner in the legislative election to be held in April 2004, however its chairwoman, President Megawati, is still the strongest contender for next year's presidential race.

As for Golkar, it may be able to dominate the legislature, taking over from PDI Perjuangan, but because next year's presidential election will not be determined by the hundreds of legislators but by 145 million voters all over Indonesia, the chances for Golkar's most prominent figure, Akbar Tanjung, are dismal.

Golkar seems to realize its situation, preparing to hold a so- called convention to select its presidential candidate. Despite the controversy surrounding the process, Golkar has managed to select seven nominees who will participate in the convention to be held after legislative election in April next year. The seven nominees are: Aburizal Bakrie, Akbar Tanjung, Yusuf Kalla, Prabowo Subianto, Sultan Hamengkubuwono X, Surya Paloh and Gen. (ret) Wiranto.

Who will be the winner of the convention is not yet known. Nonetheless, the most important question to be asked today is: "Is there someone among the seven nominees who stands a good chance against Megawati and candidates from other parties in the presidential election?"

So far, our survey has revealed that none of Golkar's nominees is popular enough to win the support of voters. Akbar was chosen by less than 9 percent of respondents, while Yusuf Kalla was supported by 3 percent of respondent.

Golkar has become a party without a figure. That's why we may once again be trapped in a situation resembling Abdurrahman Wahid's presidency from 1999 to 2001, when the president was not backed by the biggest party in the legislature.

Wahid was indeed a peculiar president who frequently made controversial statements, fired aides who came from parties other than the PKB and was accused of alleged involvement in a corruption scandal. However, the most important variable of his impeachment was the fact that Wahid was not backed by the biggest party in the legislature.

So for the sake of winning the presidential election next year, as well as the stability of government for the next five years, Golkar must prepare another strategy to come up with a strong presidential candidate. If the winner of the convention proves unpopular to the majority of Indonesian voters, which can be determined by credible surveys by Golkar's internal research bureau or by independent organizations, Golkar must be willing to adopt a contingency plan. That would be to recruit an alternative candidate who is both popular with Golkar's constituency as well as a majority of Indonesian voters.