2003 tougher year for Asian exports

2003 tougher year for Asian exports

SINGAPORE: Asian exports will have a more difficult year in 2003 with new orders from the United States expected to weaken, said Credit Suisse First Boston (CSFB) in a report on Saturday.

The Institute of Supply Management's new orders index eased to 50.4 in July and 49.7 in August, suggesting Asian exports to the U.S. could be flat early next year after growing 15-25 per cent year-on-year in the August-December 2002 period, said CSFB regional economist P.K. Basu.

CSFB cut its 2003 gross domestic product growth forecasts for several economies in its latest Emerging Markets Quarterly.

Most notable was Taiwan, where the estimate was reduced to 2.9 per cent from 4.2 per cent.

The forecast for Hong Kong's growth next year was lowered to 1.4 per cent from 2 per cent previously, and Singapore's sliced by 0.3 of a percentage point to 4.4 per cent.

As long as the U.S. slowdown "stops short of an actual recession or double-dip," domestic demand within Asia should continue to recover, Basu said. -- DPA