2001 economic growth could reach 4%: Rizal

JAKARTA (JP): Coordinating Minister for the Economy Rizal Ramli said that economic growth this year could exceed 4 percent if there were political stability.

"If political stability can be achieved ... the economy can grow by 4 percent in 2001," Rizal told a media conference late on Monday to report the performance of the administration of President Abdurrahman Wahid in resolving the country's economic problems.

He said that the 4 percent growth confirmed that the country was on track with its economic recovery.

He added that the country would enjoy a higher economic growth this year, compared with other neighboring countries which had also been facing an economic crisis.

Rizal made the statement as the House of Representatives is set to convene today to decide on whether to proceed with plans to request the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR), the country's supreme legislative body, to hold a special session in which the agenda might include an evaluation of the President's performance during his current term. The session might also lead to his impeachment.

Abdurrahman has been facing strong pressure from his opponents at the legislature to step down and hand over power to Vice President Megawati Sukarnoputri. But the President has warned that if the House continues with plans to launch an impeachment process, there could be conflict between his supporters and opponents.

Rizal's economic forecast is more optimistic than the government's own forecast of a 3.5 percent growth, as stated in the revised 2001 state budget, currently being debated by the House.

Several economists had earlier warned that growth this year could be lower than the government's 3.5 percent forecast, due to problems at home and slower economic growth in the U.S., the country's largest export market.

Indonesia's economy contracted by nearly 14 percent in 1998, and growth was relatively flat in 1999. But the economy managed to register a higher-than-expected growth of 4.8 percent last year during the administration of Abdurrahman.

Elsewhere, Rizal said that one of the country's largest challenges was a transition from authoritarian rule to a more democratic system.

He said that the transition was not an easy process, as some people linked to the old regime would try to foil this effort.

"The old forces will continue to cause destabilization and this has become a factor disrupting political stability and security," he said.

He said that the transition had become more complex because at the same time the country was experiencing an economic crisis.

Rizal also said that the country's economic crisis deepened because of the "wrong medicine."

He was referring to the economic programs prescribed by the International Monetary Fund, which entered the country in the aftermath of the 1997 Asian financial crisis.

Rizal has often expressed disagreement with the IMF, which is providing a multibillion dollar bailout loan for the country. (rei)