1996 tough for political parties: Academician
1996 tough for political parties: Academician
By Haryoso
SEMARANG, Central Java (JP): Political observer Riswandha
Imawan predicts a gloomy 1996 political scene, with the clout of
political parties declining even further than in this passing
year.
The Gadjah Mada University lecturer told The Jakarta Post
yesterday that the roles of the ruling Golkar, the Moslem-based
United Development Party (PPP) and the nationalist Indonesian
Democratic Party (PDI) will lessen next year.
The three political groupings have been mere objects, "a ball
to be kicked around", in the scene, he said.
"The formal political force will fare just like a ball in a
kick-ball game," he said. "The political parties, as part of the
formal political structure will be kicked around."
"The political parties will not be political players next
year," he said.
The two minority parties, PPP and PDI, which have been
marginalized in the scene during this passing year, "will even
collapse" next year, he said.
"PPP and PDI will 'faint'", he said.
He pointed out that up to the present, Indonesian politics has
relied on four pillars: President Soeharto, the Armed Forces
(ABRI), business conglomerates and the Association of Indonesian
Moslem Intellectuals (ICMI).
He predicted that the four pillars will continue to play
crucial roles in next year's political scene, as the country
gears up for the 1997 general elections.
ICMI, however, will become even bigger, he said.
"I believe that ICMI will play an even more important role
than ABRI and business conglomerates in the future because there
are more young people on its leadership board. They will have
much to do next year," he said.
He also predicted that 1996 will be a golden year for the
generation of former student activists of the 1960s, who were
instrumental in the toppling of the Old Order administration in
1966.
The former activists will be able to advance to the political
center stage soon, he predicted.
"I suggest that the generation of 1966 exert efforts to obtain
this prominent place in Indonesian politics. Otherwise, they will
lose the opportunity," he said. "I believe that it will be more
difficult for them to obtain the position in 2003."
Prediction
Riswandha also gave predictions for the whole political scene.
Next year, for instance, the current New Order administration
will face strong pressures from the public demanding that it
"return to its basic mission".
He said the New Order has lost its spirit for reforms.
Riswandha also said that 1996 will see more debates on the
1998 presidential succession, despite the foregone conclusion of
many groups that the actual change of leadership will occur in
2003. Many people believe that the People's Consultative Assembly
will re-elect President Soeharto to his seventh term in 1998.
"The scene will be dynamic next year," he said.
Riswandha also spoke about the various obstacles that the
nation must face in its political development, including the
widespread use of the issue of communism resurgence by the
authorities to silence government critics.
For the past several months, the public has been made familiar
with the term "formless organizations", which denotes the
insidious campaign of communism trying to reassert its existence.
Riswandha was concerned that the government will just accuse
critics of being part of formless organizations when they
disagree with government policies.
"Without the critics, Indonesia will turn into a kingdom,
where the economical and political strength will rely on one
group of people only," he added.
Riswandha said 1996 will see the growing presence of the civil
society, which is marked with the people's greater drive for
independence, for freedom of expression and for greater political
participation.
The passing year has witnessed a growing political awareness
on the individual level, but failed to bring changes to the
structure of the politics, he said. He said he hopes to see even
greater changes next year, and the drive transformed into a
stronger sense of nationalism. (har/imn)