15 areas may see violence in 2004 elections: Scholars
15 areas may see violence in 2004 elections: Scholars
Sri Wahyuni, The Jakarta Post, Yogyakarta
An academic center for security analysis has identified at least
15 areas in the country that may see violence during the upcoming
general elections.
According to the Center for Security and Peace Studies (CSPS),
a university think tank at Gadjah Mada University, eight of the
15 areas were located on Java: Pekalongan, Solo and Jepara in
Central Java; Pasuruan, Situbondo, Sampang and Pamekasan in East
Java; and Jakarta.
The remaining seven are located outside Java: Sambas, West
Kalimantan; Sampit, Central Kalimantan; Poso, Central Sulawesi;
Morowali, Central Sulawesi; and Makassar, South Sulawesi; Bali
and Papua.
Lambang Triyono, head of CSPS, said the center had identified
the 15 areas upon several criteria, primarily on whether the
areas had experienced political violence in the 1999 election. It
also took into consideration the local economic, social and
political trends and situations that might fuel tension and give
rise to violence.
Lambang added that the center had also identified four
critical periods during the elections that might have greater
potential for violence.
The four critical periods are: one, the January-April period
leading up to the general elections; two, post-general elections
period up to the first round of the presidential election, from
April to July; three, between the first and second rounds of the
presidential election, from July to September; and finally, the
post-presidential election period, from September to December.
The legislative election will be held on April 5, the first
round of the presidential election on July 5 and the second round
is set for Sept. 20.
"Basically, we have to be on high alert for the entire year,"
said CSPS researcher M. Najib Azka on late Monday.
The center has suggested that the government and political
parties develop an early warning system for detecting and
preventing possible violence during the election year.
Lambang said that, given their influence over members and
followers, party leaders would have an essential role in
minimizing electoral conflicts and should thus cooperate with
other societal elements to ensure successful and peaceful
elections.
He also suggested that all stakeholders in the elections --
the political elite, religious leaders, non-governmental
organizations (NGOs), mass media, electoral officials and
watchdogs -- needed to establish a forum for discussing and
defusing possible conflicts.