15 areas may see violence in 2004 elections: Scholars

Sri Wahyuni, The Jakarta Post, Yogyakarta

An academic center for security analysis has identified at least 15 areas in the country that may see violence during the upcoming general elections.

According to the Center for Security and Peace Studies (CSPS), a university think tank at Gadjah Mada University, eight of the 15 areas were located on Java: Pekalongan, Solo and Jepara in Central Java; Pasuruan, Situbondo, Sampang and Pamekasan in East Java; and Jakarta.

The remaining seven are located outside Java: Sambas, West Kalimantan; Sampit, Central Kalimantan; Poso, Central Sulawesi; Morowali, Central Sulawesi; and Makassar, South Sulawesi; Bali and Papua.

Lambang Triyono, head of CSPS, said the center had identified the 15 areas upon several criteria, primarily on whether the areas had experienced political violence in the 1999 election. It also took into consideration the local economic, social and political trends and situations that might fuel tension and give rise to violence.

Lambang added that the center had also identified four critical periods during the elections that might have greater potential for violence.

The four critical periods are: one, the January-April period leading up to the general elections; two, post-general elections period up to the first round of the presidential election, from April to July; three, between the first and second rounds of the presidential election, from July to September; and finally, the post-presidential election period, from September to December.

The legislative election will be held on April 5, the first round of the presidential election on July 5 and the second round is set for Sept. 20.

"Basically, we have to be on high alert for the entire year," said CSPS researcher M. Najib Azka on late Monday.

The center has suggested that the government and political parties develop an early warning system for detecting and preventing possible violence during the election year.

Lambang said that, given their influence over members and followers, party leaders would have an essential role in minimizing electoral conflicts and should thus cooperate with other societal elements to ensure successful and peaceful elections.

He also suggested that all stakeholders in the elections -- the political elite, religious leaders, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), mass media, electoral officials and watchdogs -- needed to establish a forum for discussing and defusing possible conflicts.