14 Critical Developments Set to Shake Indonesia This Week, Threatening IDX-Rupiah
From the bond market, 10-year Sovereign Bond (SBN) yields rose to 7.083% on Friday, up from 7.008% on Thursday.
In the US stock market, Wall Street closed higher in Friday’s trading (25/09/2026), supported by Microsoft and several AI-related technology companies. However, high oil prices and surging US Treasury yields have kept investors on alert. The strength in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices ended a volatile week. On Friday, the S&P 500 rose 0.51% to 7,743.41, Nasdaq gained 0.48% to 27,068.72, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.93% to 51,828.62.
Market movements were influenced by uncertainty regarding which industries will benefit or suffer from AI developments, as well as concerns over the US-Iran conflict and rising US government bond yields. Microsoft (MSFT.O) surged 3.7%, bringing its 2026 gains to 7% after introducing new capabilities in its Copilot applications. Chip manufacturer Qualcomm (QCOM.O) rose 4%, while Dell (DELL.N) climbed 5%. Akamai Technologies (AKAM.O) jumped 3.2% following the announcement of an US$11.6 billion cloud services deal with Anthropic. Conversely, Meta Platforms (META.O) weakened by 3.3%.
Throughout this week, Indonesian financial markets will be overshadowed by numerous announcements and the release of critical domestic and international data. Domestically, key releases include the September Manufacturing PMI, September 2026 inflation, and August trade balance data. Internationally, geopolitical developments, US data releases, and speeches by Federal Reserve officials will determine the direction of stocks and the Rupiah.
Here are several important agendas for today and throughout the week:
War Developments: Iran Prepared for ‘Doomsday’ War with US, Strait of Hormuz as a Weapon. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi emphasised that his country is prepared to face a ‘doomsday’ war with the United States, while still leaving the door open for diplomacy. Iran has offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and resume nuclear negotiations within seven days, but US President Donald Trump has rejected the proposal. Tehran insists the Strait will only be reopened if the US halts aggression, ends the economic blockade, and releases Iranian assets. Amidst the deadlock, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claims to have seized a US Remus 600 underwater drone in the Strait of Hormuz.
From Monday, ‘Gocap’ Stocks Could Drop to Rp1 as IDX Changes Minimum Price Limit! The Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) will begin lowering the minimum share price in the regular and cash markets from Rp50 to Rp1 per share starting Monday (28/09/2026). This policy allows stocks that have been stuck at the ‘gocap’ (Rp50) level to trade at lower prices, following market supply and demand mechanisms. However, investors must remain cautious of trading status, as some stocks are currently suspended.
Federal Reserve Official Speeches. Several Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to deliver speeches regarding banking supervision, AI regulation, economic prospects, and payment systems. On Monday (28/09), Governor Lisa Cook will discuss AI and new technologies, while Michelle Bowman will discuss banking supervision and regulation. On Tuesday (29/09), Michael Barr will discuss economic prospects, and Christopher Waller will speak on payment systems.
US Job Openings. The US will release August JOLTS data on Tuesday (29/09/2026) at 21:00 WIB. This data will be closely watched to measure the resilience of the US labour market. Weakening openings could strengthen expectations for Fed rate cuts, whereas solid figures could prompt the central bank to remain more cautious.