Indonesia's 55% global nickel market share masks a precarious dependency on Chinese investment and markets, with Chinese control driving global prices down 47% over 18 months and crippling Indonesian miners' profitability. The single-customer dependency and disqualification from U.S. Inflation Reduction Act incentives threaten to isolate Indonesia from Western markets, whilst creating opportunities for rival producers in Canada and Australia. Indonesia faces a critical geopolitical choice betwee