Yasser Arafat faces two major problems

By Riza Sihbudi

JAKARTA (JP): In the last few weeks, Yasser Arafat has had to deal with two major problems.

First, although Arafat has gone to Washington to strike a deal with President Bill Clinton and Prime Minister Ehud Barak, it seems the prospect of an amicable settlement of the Palestinian -- Israeli conflict is still uncertain.

Second, Palestinian freedom fighters under the banner of Hamas (the Islamic Resistance Movement) are gaining an increasingly stronger position.

It is true that Arafat has always managed to get out of all sorts of difficulties. In the early 1970s, for example, King Hussein forcefully drove him and other Palestinian guerrillas away from Jordan. Then in 1982, Israel heavily bombarded his bases in Lebanon, forcing him and his followers to flee to Tunisia.

During the Kuwait War (1990-1991), Arafat was ostracized by Western countries and his Arabian allies for his support of Iraq's President Saddam Hussein, a decision which turned out to be a miscalculation.

Despite all these difficult situations, Arafat managed to survive. He has been likened, therefore, to a ballet dancer who when seeming to be on the verge of falling, returns to an erect position.

A valid question now is whether Arafat still has enough "stamina" to get over the challenges now directed against him from two "fronts" simultaneously.

Of these two challenges, perhaps the challenge posed by the second "front" is the more crucial because it really puts Arafat's future to the test. While the first challenge may be considered to have its origin in an external aspect, the second -- the strengthening position of Hamas -- may be categorized as an "internal" challenge.

Hamas spokesperson in Al-Khalil (Hebron), Mohammed Jamal Natshi, has said that the position of the Islamic movement in general, Hamas in particular, is now strengthening.

One of the proofs, said Natshi, who is one of some 400 Hamas activists the Zionist regime deported to Marjel Zuhour, South Lebanon in the early 1990s, is that in most elections in various students' institutions in the occupied territory, Hamas representatives have defeated Arafat's supporters.

Natshi also said there is a growing conviction among the majority of Palestinians that the Islamic solution is the only solution to their cause and to the Palestinian question in general.

Therefore, he said, the Palestinian authorities have wrongly alleged that Islamic activists have tried to crash the Palestinians' hope. In his turn, Natshi strongly criticized the cooperation between the Palestinian Authorities and Israel to muzzle Hamas.

Ismael Hanniya, another Hamas leading figure, has asserted that the Islamic movement takes it as its obligation to muster greater strength in order to prevent a more serious disintegration of the Palestinians.

Today, an increasingly greater number of young Palestinians believe that the establishment of the Palestinian Authorities under Arafat is nothing more than part of a U.S.-led international conspiracy aiming to destroy the Palestinians as a nation. Dr Abdul Aziz al Rantisi, former Hamas spokesperson deported to Lebanon, has even said, "the Oslo Treaty is dead."

It is easy to understand why such an opinion was voiced and later gained a greater number of supporters. Many Palestinians have witnessed Arafat suffer one fiasco after another in the international arena despite his concession to compromise with Western powers, particularly the United States.

Arafat not only has failed to get what the West has promised him, but he has also been frequently "compelled" to pressure his fellow Palestinians.

Dr Azzam Salhab of Hebron University has expressed his curiosity on why the Palestinian Authorities have shown "greater atrocity" toward Islamic activists than the Israeli rulers themselves. That's why Hamas has called upon Arafat to "return to the Islamic way" and prioritize "the Palestinian unity" in confronting the Israeli-U.S. alliance.

On the other hand, it seems Arafat cannot ignore the strengthening position of Islamic groups in Palestine.

That this is so is noticeable, at least, from Arafat's efforts some time ago to mend fences with the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Arafat has reportedly dispatched a number of Palestinian Authorities officials to Tehran.

As is known, the relationship between the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) and Iran has deteriorated since the outbreak of the Iran-Iraq war (1980-1988), during which Arafat openly took side with Baghdad. Arafat has also frequently alleged that Iran is behind the Islamic groups, particularly the Palestinian Islamic Jihad group.

Two factors seem to underlie Arafat's step to normalize the relationship with Iran. First, Arafat's wish to improve his relationship with the Islamic Jihad group and Hamas. Second, he hopes to strengthen his bargaining position in confronting the Israeli-U.S. alliance.

In any case, Iran remains one of the Middle Eastern countries rejecting the U.S.-style peace scenario as it obviously benefits only the Israeli position.

To return to the original question, i.e. whether Arafat will be able, this time, to get over two stumbling blocks lying in his way simultaneously and originating from two different "fronts", we can foresee two possibilities.

First, if Arafat can settle his conflict with Hamas and other Islamic movements in Palestine and get rid of graft within the Palestinian Authorities, he can, relatively, find it easier to deal with the Israeli hard-liners' policies. It is true that the reconciliation between Arafat and Hamas will make military confrontation with Israel difficult to avoid.

However, this will be Arafat's best option in order that he restore his reputation in the eyes of the Palestinians. Whatever the case may be, internal consolidation will always be the best option before one deals with external forces.

Second, if Arafat refuses to change his policy on Hamas, or in other words, let the conflict between the Palestinian Authorities and Hamas drag on, and fails to eliminate corruption, now allegedly rampant among his close aides, it will only be a matter of time before it is a closed book on Arafat's political career.

In light of this possibility, Arafat should not ignore the bigger support that the Palestinians extend to Islamic movements, as well as the growing sympathy for Hamas among his own supporters.

Otherwise, it seems certain the world will soon bid farewell to this figure, who has devoted all his life to the struggle for the destiny of the Palestinians.

The writer is chairman of the Indonesian Society for Middle East Studies (ISMES).