Wiranto's candidacy likely to provoke serious reaction

Jusuf Wanandi, Jakarta

U.S. Ambassador Boyce was very diplomatic when declaring that he respected Indonesia's processes to elect a president and would accept whatever the result was, so long as the process was fair.

Of course he should be neutral -- he cannot be seen as taking sides or intervening. Whatever he would say could work both ways, possibly assisting Wiranto's candidacy as a reaction to the so- called pressure from the superpower.

But this is only one part of the reaction. The international and national press have already reacted to Wiranto's candidacy after the April 20 Golkar Party convention chose him. So did civil society groups in Indonesia and abroad. More protests will come because Wiranto has been badly tainted with alleged human rights abuses.

Wiranto has been indicted by the UN Deputy General Prosecutor for Serious Crimes filed with the Special Panel for Serious Crimes at the Dili District Court in East Timor (based on UN Security Council Resolution: 1272 of Oct. 25, 1999). This case is still being pursued and further action can be expected in the near future.

At the least, Wiranto had command responsibility for the rampage of violence and looting that happened after the referendum in 1999 where more than 1500 people were killed, 200,000 forced to leave for West Timor and 70 percent of the province's buildings were damaged or burned down. It was also mentioned in the indictment that the Indonesian Military (TNI) under his command had allegedly trained the militia and supplied them with weapons. TNI members were also involved in the rampage.

Domestically, the abuses perpetrated in May 1998, when Wiranto was Commander in Chief of TNI, especially against the Indonesian Chinese, has never been looked into judicially. Neither were the cases of the killing of students in 1999 and 2000. These are the facts and justice is still being pursued by the families of the victims, maybe in vain because of the politics surrounding the matter.

Here is a scenario of how all these accusations and indictments against Wiranto could be played out in the international arena in the future. And Muladi better watch out.

Firstly, there is what has already started -- the press has aired human rights groups and political analysts protesting his candidacy. These protests will certainly grow as more and more interested groups network together. Subsequently, a few members of a European parliament or a few U.S. congressmen or senators will make the issue their main interest, such as happened with Senator Feingold from Wisconsin against the TNI's abuses in East Timor in 1991; or Senator Leahy from Vermont, against the TNI's abuses in Dili, where the sanctions against the TNI still hold and are hurting.

In the case of Myanmar, Senior Senator Mich McConnel from Kentucky has single-handedly sponsored and passed heavy sanctions against the SPDC government, which is seriously hurting its economy. This could happen to Indonesia under Wiranto if he won the election. It would serve to isolate Indonesia from the world, both politically and economically and might also spread to private sector investment or export boycotts.

If Wiranto becomes the next president of Indonesia and he goes abroad, he will have to confront demonstrations against him where ever he goes. At worst, the world would treat him like a "Pinochet" or indict him, depending how East Timor's war crimes case develops in the future. Although as head of state, Wiranto might have immunity, the embarrassment would be great and would hurt the Indonesian people and the state.

I am not judging Wiranto's guilt or innocence, but having followed international affairs for over 30 years, I believe that the reaction will be strong as Wiranto is undoubtedly tainted -- either with an indictment or without one. This embarrassment is the last thing the country needs as it tries to overcome multiple crises.

If these sanctions are applied on a future Wiranto presidency, then the American ambassador or any other Western counterpart will only have one choice: To implement them. In that case, Boyce or his successor will become much more specific and stern in his language.

And we have not even begun to visualize the reactions from Indonesian civil society, the media and students if Wiranto is elected president. But that is still a big if.

The writer is co-founder and member of the board of trustees of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).