Will Thaksin pass the test of time?

Pana Janviroj, The Nation, Asia News Network, Bangkok

The year of national elections in Asia is coming to a close. Indonesia is about to round up its presidential election and new leaders have been installed in Malaysia, India and South Korea.

The Philippines has just seen the return of Gloria Macapagal Arroyo as president, while Junichiro Koizumi was re-elected prime minister of Japan.

Singapore will see the elevation of Deputy Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong during the middle of next month. He will succeed Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong, who is destined to retire from the post as one of Asia's newest statesmen. The People's Republic of China has a new group of leaders who appear to have settled in with the enormous challenges that awaited them in the world's most populous and dynamic nation.

Fortunately, the new Asian leaders are taking office at a time of economic stability. None of these countries are posting gross domestic product growth (GDP) of less than 5 percent. If there is any Achilles' heel, it is the threat of terrorism, something to which the world has grown accustomed to seeing as the main post- Cold War security challenge.

Regional diplomacy is changing fast, driven largely by the arm's-length foreign policy of China. Beijing has not only been actively involved with ASEAN (the Association of Southeast Asian Nations), but has also shown greater willingness to work with its previously mistrusted northern neighbors -- Japan and South Korea. India is also coming onto the Asian scene at a rapid pace.

It has made progress in patching up relations with China. Its role in East Asia is being accommodated not only by ASEAN, but also the Thai-initiated Asia Cooperation Dialogue -- an infant diplomatic mechanism that China is now in charge of pushing forward during the next 12 months.

The relatively sound environment, regardless of whatever risks or uncertainties face the world as a whole, is making it easier for Asian countries to further do things together. Some people may even have started dreaming of a summit of Asian heads of state to discuss "Asian issues".

It is not always easy or fair to generalize Asia as a singular thing. Diversity is one of the defining characteristics of the region -- more so than in the South American, North American or European "federations".

There have nevertheless been some attempts, among them the World Bank's so-called "economic miracle", to find some commonality in the exceptional economic performances of the countries in the region. However, among Asian leaders, particularly, those elected during the last 12 months, there are some common features worth looking at. One in particular stands out. No, it is not their relative youth, but their shared sense of "mission" and a credibility very much tied to their respective personalities.

Most if not all of the current Asian leaders appear to be going the real rather than the make-believe. From South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun to Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, to Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, they all want to make a lasting impact on their people, to pursue policies that have lasting consequences among the people at the grassroots level. And winning the confidence of these people with policies whose methods may not immediately be clear seems to be a priority among these leaders.

This says a lot about the maturity of democracy in Asia. These leaders, most of whom have held high offices before, have had to struggle very hard to win votes from candidates who are even more populist.

Even in communist China, the leaders have had to make an extra effort to make sure that people understand that the ruling party serves the people even though it wasn't elected. And another more visible commonality is in the sphere of the economy.

All of the new Asian leaders are pursuing economic reforms aimed at greater openness, although some more so than others. At the same time, they're trying to make their economies more competitive with the understanding that their Asian peers are competitors as well as partners.

The reform-minded leaders are not dissimilar. Malaysian Prime Minister Ahmad Abdullah Badawi, Indian Premier Singh and Chinese Premier Wen, among others are seriously taking on bureaucratic reforms. They have pledged to, and in some cases are already taking action against corrupt state enterprises.

The events taking place in Asia should serve as food for thought for Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra as his Thai Rak Thai Party heads towards its second national election. He has pledged to be different, to be exceptional and to be innovative. Thaksin remains a popular leader, especially among the masses.

But the premier might want look back over the last three-plus years he has been in office and admit that errors have been made and that there are things that should have been done sooner.

At this point he is sticking to the tried-and-true practice of politically motivated policy initiatives while his Asian peers are going for basic, textbook development policies. They are also working to maintain democracy.

Thaksin will at the latest face the polls in the first quarter of next year, and those outside Thailand are awaiting the outcome -- not so much of the election itself, but whether the Thai leader will received the stamp of domestic and international credibility if and when he returns for a second term.