Will Taiwan undertake key reform?

Our Asia correspondent Harvey Stockwin asks whether the Taiwan political parties will undertake a key electoral reform to make the March election more of a truly democratic exercise.

HONG KONG (JP): In Taiwan, politicians are gearing up for the second presidential election based on an adult franchise in the China's long history. The U.S. presidential campaign has started even though the voting will not take place until November 2000.

Almost as protracted, given that their electorate is roughly one-tenth the size of America's, the Taiwanese presidential candidates are already campaigning even though they will not be going to the polls until March 18.

Taiwan yearns for wider recognition in the community of nations but generally does not get it. Now an opportunity to earn such wider recognition, in a non-diplomatic way, is opening up -- and it is a way that need not stoke the fires of China's rage and vituperation. The opportunity arises because, at the beginning of the protracted presidential election campaign, it looks very much as if Taiwan has caught the Philippine disease: too many candidates chasing a single job, resulting in a minority president.

Leaving aside the quixotic or downright eccentric candidacies who are bound to come forward from the legions of Taiwan's independents, the presidential contest looks like being a six-man race. Viewed in one perspective, the two main parties, both of which have spawned breakaway parties as Taiwan democracy has matured into factional discord, will be putting forward three candidates each.

First comes the main opposition party, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). The DPP's candidate will be the former Mayor of Taipei, the adroit campaigner Chen Shui-bian, who was defeated when he ran for re-election as mayor last year. Chen belongs to the mainstream of the DPP, a party originally founded to push for the formal institution of Taiwan independence. Over the years, the DPP mainstream has become far more pragmatic, less ideological, about independence.

Chen will continue to demonstrate that pragmatism as he runs under the slogan "Young Taiwan, Vigorous Government". Trimming the bloated bureaucracy will be an important aspect of his platform. Chen Shui-bian will be aiming to change the constitution -- not to institutionalize independence -- but in order to reduce the present five tiers of government structure down to merely three.

The DPP is able to cohere to push pragmatic policies because the dogmatic faction within it, for whom the creation of a Republic of Taiwan was the only goal that mattered, walked out of the party several years ago to found the Taiwan Independence Party (TIP). TIP has nominated their party chairman, former academic Cheng Pang-chen, to be their standard bearer for president.

But the DPP vote will be split in another way. Former DPP party chairman Hsu Hsin-liang has decided not to support either the TIP or the DPP candidate, but to run himself as an independent. The precise policy reason why Hsu has decided to go it alone is not clear -- presumably either strong personality differences or an oversize ego, or both, are mainly responsible.

Given this three-way split in the opposition, the election should have been a walkover for the candidate of the ruling Kuomintang candidate, former Premier and now Vice President, the rather dour and colorless Lien Chan. But he also faces a three- way split, making the presidential election very much an open race.

Clearly Lien Chan will have the bulk of the Kuomintang's formidable party organization behind him and at least he recognizes his grave deficiency in charisma. Already a book has been published entitled Meet The Real Lien Chan which tries to portray him as a doer rather than a mere self-promoter. "The book has given me a lot of confidence" Lien confides, confessing that he is simply not used to promoting himself.

Whether the real Lien does in fact emerge from his bland public persona is one imponderable in the unfolding campaign but, very obviously, being colorful is absolutely no problem for the candidate of the New Party, Li Ao. The New Party was a faction of the Kuomintang which broke away from the KLM seven years ago, mainly on the grounds that the party under President Lee Teng-hui was paying insufficient attention to reunification.

Immediately after it broke away, the New Party was winning double digit support. It split the KMT vote to such an extent as to make it possible for the DPP's Chen Shui-bian to become Mayor of Taipei in 1994.

Since that one high point, the New Party has faded fast. Now it cannot even count on the loyalty of the former mainlander minority within Taiwan, roughly 12 percent of the population. This is probably why the New Party has chosen a maverick like the tart-tongued writer Li Ao as its presidential candidate. He seems certain to attract attention to the New Party even if he does not win many votes. Li Ao has called the New Party "a small melon and a spoiled one at that" and refuses to join the party which has made him its nominee, saying that this "proves how generous and broadminded the party is". Amazingly, Li Ao has also repeatedly maintained that James Soong is the voter's most appropriate choice for President.

James Soong is the former Governor of Taiwan, and former secretary-general of the Kuomintang who saved the day for President Lee Teng-hui when KMT stalwarts opposed Lee's accession to the presidency after the death of former President Chiang Ching-kuo. The puzzle remains -- why did Lee Teng-hui push the well-meaning technocrat Lien Chien as his successor, and then sideline the articulate and charismatic James Soong who has supporters in every nook and corner of the KMT? The most obvious answer may be the correct one -- President Lee is willing to give up power but not influence. He will have more influence over a Lien Chan administration than he would over a President Soong.

James Soong announced in mid-July that he would run for president as an independent who nevertheless seeks to reform the KMT. He has not yet resigned from the KMT. So far, the KMT has not expelled him or his followers. Almost certainly, the most crucial imponderable in this election will be how Lien Chan handles the profound political problem posed by James Soong's candidacy, whether he decides to conduct the widest ranging purge of the KMT since it based itself in Taiwan in 1949 -- or more prudently decides to let sleeping dogs lie. The danger is clear. A purge could so divide the KMT as to weaken both itself and, by extension, Taiwan as well.

In any event, the one certain result of the March election is already obvious: whoever wins, the next leader will be a minority president, with well under 50 percent of the vote. So, if all parties are agreed on the necessity of strengthening rather than weakening Taiwan, there is no doubt what they should now agree to do. The National Assembly, with its power to change the constitution, is still in session. It could mandate preferential voting for next year leadership contest. Every voter would have to rank the six candidates in order of preference. The preferences would be counted until one candidate achieved 50 percent plus one of the total vote. The next President would have majority support.

If this vital reform was enacted, the count would go probably go this way:

First the TIP's Cheng Pang-chen would be eliminated, followed by the independent Hsu Hsin-liang. The counting of their preferences would not give any one candidate a majority, and that would still be true when the New Party's Li Ao was eliminated. But Li Ao's preferences might serve to improve James Soong's percentage of the vote.

If the KMT now avoids a purge, the present likelihood is that the DPP's Chen Shui-bian would be the next to be eliminated. But if the KMT is instead bitterly divided as Lien Chan and his backers seek to expel all secret Soong supporters, then as in 1994, so in 1999, Chen Shui-bian might come through the middle and eliminate either Lien Chan or James Soong.

Who would win if Soong and Lien, or Lien and Chen were the last two candidates after the final preferences were allotted is anybody's guess. A great deal revolves around whether James Soong can offset Lien's control of the KMT political machine by articulating different and more appealing policies to the Taiwan electorate.

This is where the developing crisis in the Taiwan Straits comes into the picture. In a nutshell, Lien follows President Lee's current policy initiative vis-a-vis China, and the DPP's Chen has also said he supports Lee's stance. Cheng and Hsu are more assertive on the issue of independence. Only Li Ao accepts China's "one country, two systems" formula but he urges votes for James Soong. Soong has so far not dissented from Lee's line -- but he has suggested that Taiwan needs courageous, not reckless, leadership. In essence President Lee, with his state-to-state formula for dealing with China, seems to have grabbed the center of the Taiwan political spectrum for Lien, leaving Soong the very difficult task of carving out a distinctive position for himself.

The more critical and immediate issue remains -- will Taiwan speedily move to make sure that the March election does not result in a minority President? The speedy adoption of preferential presidential voting would not merely strengthen Taiwan's democracy. It would also heighten wider recognition in the world that Taiwan's democracy is a very meaningful Chinese accomplishment.