Will Susilo rise to the occasion, set the tone for a hopeful future?

S.P. Seth, Sydney

Indonesia's direct presidential election is a milestone in its democratic transition. The election process was free and fair, with a landslide victory for Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono; though official confirmation is yet to come. Susilo thanked President Megawati Soekarnoputri "for bringing this democratic process." In other words, the incumbent President avoided the temptation of rigging the election. And that is a testimony to the gradual maturing of the political system.

But this also means that the people want the system to deliver. In a country where 40 percent of the work force is estimated to be either unemployed or under-employed, people's expectations from the new democratic system are scary. And Susilo will have to bear the brunt. Obviously, he will not be able to perform miracles. But he might be able to set the tone for a hopeful future.

Is he cut out for such a role? What we know about Susilo is that he has an easy personal style enabling him to work with dictators as well as political hacks. He has managed to survive and prosper under the Soeharto regime and his successors. Which is an admirable quality, but could as well be an example of sitting on the fence and lacking leadership quality of making tough decisions.

An example of his waffling: "It is not the hope of the Indonesian people to put human rights as absolute. There must be a balance between liberty and security, between freedom and order, between rights and responsibility." Which is neither here nor there. He can have his bet both ways depending on the circumstances. This might explain his rather mediocre performance in his military and civilian lives.

Will he, therefore, rise to the occasion in his new role as the country's president? He might because he has quite a few things going in his favor.

First: As president he will be his own master and not doing others' bidding as was the case before.

Second, as Indonesia's popularly elected president he doesn't owe significant political debts. With his popular legitimacy, he can afford to be more audacious to capture people's imagination. He might even create a strategic vision for the country-a common goal to galvanize an otherwise disparate and dispirited people.

Third: Being less controversial than most political leaders of Indonesia, he has the temperament to create political harmony. He is already planning to take steps "for reconciliation between my side and Megawati's side for the cabinet." In other words, he might be able to create a national political coalition represented in his cabinet.

But, even with the best will in the world, Susilo will still be a captive of the system. The system is a hybrid of the old and the new-the old still extant from the Soeharto era with accommodation for the country's new political elite. There is not much in it for the common good.

There is even an element of self-congratulation at the country's nascent democracy, making it somehow a substitute of sorts for lack of material development. Susilo himself is a votary of the system. He reportedly said that "the system, and not an individual, is the true wise leader." In other words, he is not likely to rock the system.

Susilo's military background is another question-mark. At the popular level, it is working to his advantage. Judging by the election results, it would seem that Indonesian people want as their president a mix of military and civilian attributes. Susilo is proud of his military background, hailing from an army family. His son is also an army officer.

At the same time, he is also a political populist. He comes out as an honest leader keen to serve his people. People are disillusioned with Soeharto's civilian successors so far. Susilo's mix of military and civilian qualities might just do the trick.

People do not want to return to Soeharto-like dictatorship, but they do want a touch of discipline in their national affairs. And Susilo seems to fit that role. There is so much riding on the newly-elected president.

In the same way, so much is expected of him by the United States, Australia and others in terms of dealing with terrorism. Susilo is American-educated and broadly in tune with the need to effectively curb terrorism. Without a secure and safe national environment, Indonesia would have great difficulty attracting foreign investments and generally create healthy economic growth. All this is common sense.

But another part of this equation is that a popularly elected president will not remain popular for long if he is seen to be doing others' bidding, like acting under U.S. pressure. Indonesia is not a terrorist territory. There is only a tiny minority of hard-core militants on the rampage. It is true that they can and are doing considerable damage. But they do not have popular support for their cause.

At the same time, Indonesians are a proud people and do not like being dictated to. They do not like being the likely target of a pre-emptive strike from outside the country to sort out their terrorism problem. This is precisely the kind of things that are not helpful to fight terrorism. It gives terrorists a raison d'etre as the savior of a national/religious cause. And it creates and expands a constituency with varying degree of sympathy for their cause, though not necessarily approving their methods. This is what the terrorists want-a deeply-felt sense of wrong being visited on the Muslim people because of their religion.

Indonesia's newly-elected president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono will have the unenviable task of meeting such diverse expectations of both his people at home and his admirers abroad. Whether or not he will be able to deliver remains to be seen! But one thing is for sure. Indonesia, under its new president, is not set for smooth sailing.

The author, freelance writer, can be reached at SushilPSeth@aol.com