Will Susilo rise to the occasion, set the tone for a hopeful future?

Will Susilo rise to the occasion, set the tone for a hopeful future?

S.P. Seth, Sydney

Indonesia's direct presidential election is a milestone in its
democratic transition. The election process was free and fair,
with a landslide victory for Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono; though
official confirmation is yet to come. Susilo thanked President
Megawati Soekarnoputri "for bringing this democratic process." In
other words, the incumbent President avoided the temptation of
rigging the election. And that is a testimony to the gradual
maturing of the political system.

But this also means that the people want the system to
deliver. In a country where 40 percent of the work force is
estimated to be either unemployed or under-employed, people's
expectations from the new democratic system are scary. And Susilo
will have to bear the brunt. Obviously, he will not be able to
perform miracles. But he might be able to set the tone for a
hopeful future.

Is he cut out for such a role? What we know about Susilo is
that he has an easy personal style enabling him to work with
dictators as well as political hacks. He has managed to survive
and prosper under the Soeharto regime and his successors. Which
is an admirable quality, but could as well be an example of
sitting on the fence and lacking leadership quality of making
tough decisions.

An example of his waffling: "It is not the hope of the
Indonesian people to put human rights as absolute. There must be
a balance between liberty and security, between freedom and
order, between rights and responsibility." Which is neither here
nor there. He can have his bet both ways depending on the
circumstances. This might explain his rather mediocre performance
in his military and civilian lives.

Will he, therefore, rise to the occasion in his new role as
the country's president? He might because he has quite a few
things going in his favor.

First: As president he will be his own master and not doing
others' bidding as was the case before.

Second, as Indonesia's popularly elected president he doesn't
owe significant political debts. With his popular legitimacy, he
can afford to be more audacious to capture people's imagination.
He might even create a strategic vision for the country-a common
goal to galvanize an otherwise disparate and dispirited people.

Third: Being less controversial than most political leaders of
Indonesia, he has the temperament to create political harmony. He
is already planning to take steps "for reconciliation between my
side and Megawati's side for the cabinet." In other words, he
might be able to create a national political coalition
represented in his cabinet.

But, even with the best will in the world, Susilo will still
be a captive of the system. The system is a hybrid of the old and
the new-the old still extant from the Soeharto era with
accommodation for the country's new political elite. There is not
much in it for the common good.

There is even an element of self-congratulation at the
country's nascent democracy, making it somehow a substitute of
sorts for lack of material development. Susilo himself is a
votary of the system. He reportedly said that "the system, and
not an individual, is the true wise leader." In other words, he
is not likely to rock the system.

Susilo's military background is another question-mark. At the
popular level, it is working to his advantage. Judging by the
election results, it would seem that Indonesian people want as
their president a mix of military and civilian attributes. Susilo
is proud of his military background, hailing from an army family.
His son is also an army officer.

At the same time, he is also a political populist. He comes
out as an honest leader keen to serve his people. People are
disillusioned with Soeharto's civilian successors so far.
Susilo's mix of military and civilian qualities might just do the
trick.

People do not want to return to Soeharto-like dictatorship,
but they do want a touch of discipline in their national affairs.
And Susilo seems to fit that role. There is so much riding on the
newly-elected president.

In the same way, so much is expected of him by the United
States, Australia and others in terms of dealing with terrorism.
Susilo is American-educated and broadly in tune with the need to
effectively curb terrorism. Without a secure and safe national
environment, Indonesia would have great difficulty attracting
foreign investments and generally create healthy economic growth.
All this is common sense.

But another part of this equation is that a popularly elected
president will not remain popular for long if he is seen to be
doing others' bidding, like acting under U.S. pressure. Indonesia
is not a terrorist territory. There is only a tiny minority of
hard-core militants on the rampage. It is true that they can and
are doing considerable damage. But they do not have popular
support for their cause.

At the same time, Indonesians are a proud people and do not
like being dictated to. They do not like being the likely target
of a pre-emptive strike from outside the country to sort out
their terrorism problem. This is precisely the kind of things
that are not helpful to fight terrorism. It gives terrorists a
raison d'etre as the savior of a national/religious cause. And it
creates and expands a constituency with varying degree of
sympathy for their cause, though not necessarily approving their
methods. This is what the terrorists want-a deeply-felt sense of
wrong being visited on the Muslim people because of their
religion.

Indonesia's newly-elected president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono
will have the unenviable task of meeting such diverse
expectations of both his people at home and his admirers abroad.
Whether or not he will be able to deliver remains to be seen! But
one thing is for sure. Indonesia, under its new president, is not
set for smooth sailing.

The author, freelance writer, can be reached at
SushilPSeth@aol.com