Will NU return to the political wilderness?

By Hartono Hadikusumo

JAKARTA (JP): In just three days the hopes for a Matori Abdul Djalil-Syamsuri Badawi "dream team" was dashed to pieces, giving rise to several interesting phenomena at the recent congress of the United Development Party (PPP) in Jakarta.

Ismail Hasan Metareum was re-elected chairman of the party and the vaunted majority of Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) in Central and East Java did not translate into anything significant. The young and vocal hopeful, Sri Bintang Pamungkas, was stopped at the gate to join the ineffective noisy demonstrations. The other chair aspirants did not seem to cause any waves. Why? Several reasons can be offered.

First, even from the start it was clear that the so called undercurrent demand for NU chairmanship of the PPP was illusory or fragmentary at best. The question was which undercurrent? Observers did not fail to notice that NU is not a solid monolithic body as some kyai (ulemas) on the board of congress supervision liked to point out. There was, of course, Abdurrahman Wahid who supported Matori Abdul Djalil, but there was also Yusuf Hasjim who supported Ismail Hasan. Even Hamzah Haz, the instigator of the kyai convocation in Rembang, distanced himself from the board after it was clear that he did not get their nomination. Central Java put forward their own candidate, Karmani, the chairman of the party's Central Java chapter.

Second, the Moslem constituency itself is multicolored, multi- sided, multi-polar. NU conveniently forgot this pluralism when it put itself forward as the biggest Moslem organization. In fact there is another one with an equally large membership, namely Muhammadiyah, whose members could be expected to support Ismail Hasan rather than Matori. And the Muslimin Indonesia (MI) faction within the PPP, Ismail's political base, has a large following in North Sumatra. Do not forget several other Islamic factions which certainly do not follow NU's lines.

Third, the strident confrontational voice frightened away many Moslems who otherwise would have voted for NU. The Moslems of Indonesia have learned from experience that extremism would take them nowhere. They have been stigmatized by extremism of Moslem parties in the past. They know that only by "constructive engagement" with the government could they advance the cause of Islam in general. They have seen in the Association of Moslem Intellectuals (ICMI) the kind of organization that has been successful in making their voices heard in government circles.

And so, as we can now see, the predicted ground swell of undercurrent did not materialize. This become clear during the selection of members of the election committee that was to be entrusted with the task to form the new leadership make up. When the votes were counted, Matori found himself in fifth place with another NU member, Syansuri, placed sixth. MI captured the remaining five places. With the 5-to-2 majority Ismail Hasan carried the day.

Doubtless, Ismail's reelection drew a collective sigh of relief from many quarters, not least from the government circles who prefer a plodding, gradual "pull" towards democracy. Certainly the soft speaking, mild-mannered Ismail is more attuned to this style of gradual opening toward democratization.

Ismail had proven himself as astute and wily politician. Unlike his opponents, he never laid all his cards on the table. He soft talked them into believing that he was a wounded old camel waiting to be pounced upon. And this may call for a new adage: Talk softly and you'll stick.

So what does the PPP congress prove? Among other things that the power of the kyai is not as great as it was vaunted to be. It is true that kyai are charismatic leaders whose followers will follow wherever they lead, but it is true only within the confines of their pesantren (traditional Islamic boarding schools). They forget that there is a much bigger world outside their pesantren.

It also proves that NU, as an organization, is not yet ready to move into politics. At the very least, NU is not yet ready to play politics the way politics are played in this country and in this era. Extremism does not pay, constructive engagement does. They, of all people, should have known that better than anyone else.

And lastly, it also proves that the majority of the ummah (Moslem community) is wary of politicians who get into a confrontational stance with the government. They understand very well that the bigger portion of the economic cake is not in their hands and thus they look to the government for protection and help.

As for NU, after the PPP congress what next? There are bound to be recriminations. NU will have its own congress soon and the cry that is almost certain to be heard is, "Who lost the PPP?" On this it is clear: If they want to return from the political wilderness they will have to plan their acts carefully and tactfully.

First, Abdurrahman Wahid, Yusuf Hasjim and the kyai will have to pull the reigns to prevent the "political" NU from breaking further apart -- which tear apart the "social" NU as well.

Second, the politicos should tone down their voice. Strident "populism" will only alarm the government and scare away potential support among moderate Moslems which is numbered in the majority.

It is true that democratization (if this is what they struggle for) has become a trend around the Third World, but this effort should come from within the system. They should learn from the chairwoman of the Indonesian Democratic Party (PDI) Megawati Soekarnoputri. The mild mannered way in which she answered the barbed comments of government officials convinced them that they had nothing to fear from her. So the secret is get into the system. And to get into it means to talk softly. Get elected and then, and only then, try to convince the government that some changes are in order.

The PPP congress will be their best chance to capture the leadership. It is almost certain that Ismail Hasan will not stand for re-election. And the MI faction there is no figure strong enough to take Ismail's mantle, not even Sri Bintang Pamungkas. If NU plays it right, the leadership will certainly be theirs in 1999.