Will NU return to the political wilderness?

Will NU return to the political wilderness?

By Hartono Hadikusumo

JAKARTA (JP): In just three days the hopes for a Matori Abdul
Djalil-Syamsuri Badawi "dream team" was dashed to pieces, giving
rise to several interesting phenomena at the recent congress of
the United Development Party (PPP) in Jakarta.

Ismail Hasan Metareum was re-elected chairman of the party
and the vaunted majority of Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) in Central and
East Java did not translate into anything significant. The young
and vocal hopeful, Sri Bintang Pamungkas, was stopped at the gate
to join the ineffective noisy demonstrations. The other chair
aspirants did not seem to cause any waves. Why? Several reasons
can be offered.

First, even from the start it was clear that the so called
undercurrent demand for NU chairmanship of the PPP was illusory
or fragmentary at best. The question was which undercurrent?
Observers did not fail to notice that NU is not a solid
monolithic body as some kyai (ulemas) on the board of congress
supervision liked to point out. There was, of course, Abdurrahman
Wahid who supported Matori Abdul Djalil, but there was also Yusuf
Hasjim who supported Ismail Hasan. Even Hamzah Haz, the
instigator of the kyai convocation in Rembang, distanced himself
from the board after it was clear that he did not get their
nomination. Central Java put forward their own candidate,
Karmani, the chairman of the party's Central Java chapter.

Second, the Moslem constituency itself is multicolored, multi-
sided, multi-polar. NU conveniently forgot this pluralism when it
put itself forward as the biggest Moslem organization. In fact
there is another one with an equally large membership, namely
Muhammadiyah, whose members could be expected to support Ismail
Hasan rather than Matori. And the Muslimin Indonesia (MI) faction
within the PPP, Ismail's political base, has a large following in
North Sumatra. Do not forget several other Islamic factions which
certainly do not follow NU's lines.

Third, the strident confrontational voice frightened away many
Moslems who otherwise would have voted for NU. The Moslems of
Indonesia have learned from experience that extremism would take
them nowhere. They have been stigmatized by extremism of Moslem
parties in the past. They know that only by "constructive
engagement" with the government could they advance the cause of
Islam in general. They have seen in the Association of Moslem
Intellectuals (ICMI) the kind of organization that has been
successful in making their voices heard in government circles.

And so, as we can now see, the predicted ground swell of
undercurrent did not materialize. This become clear during the
selection of members of the election committee that was to be
entrusted with the task to form the new leadership make up. When
the votes were counted, Matori found himself in fifth place with
another NU member, Syansuri, placed sixth. MI captured the
remaining five places. With the 5-to-2 majority Ismail Hasan
carried the day.

Doubtless, Ismail's reelection drew a collective sigh of
relief from many quarters, not least from the government circles
who prefer a plodding, gradual "pull" towards democracy.
Certainly the soft speaking, mild-mannered Ismail is more attuned
to this style of gradual opening toward democratization.

Ismail had proven himself as astute and wily politician.
Unlike his opponents, he never laid all his cards on the table.
He soft talked them into believing that he was a wounded old
camel waiting to be pounced upon. And this may call for a new
adage: Talk softly and you'll stick.

So what does the PPP congress prove? Among other things that
the power of the kyai is not as great as it was vaunted to be. It
is true that kyai are charismatic leaders whose followers will
follow wherever they lead, but it is true only within the
confines of their pesantren (traditional Islamic boarding
schools). They forget that there is a much bigger world outside
their pesantren.

It also proves that NU, as an organization, is not yet ready
to move into politics. At the very least, NU is not yet ready
to play politics the way politics are played in this country and
in this era. Extremism does not pay, constructive engagement
does. They, of all people, should have known that better than
anyone else.

And lastly, it also proves that the majority of the ummah
(Moslem community) is wary of politicians who get into a
confrontational stance with the government. They understand very
well that the bigger portion of the economic cake is not in their
hands and thus they look to the government for protection and
help.

As for NU, after the PPP congress what next? There are bound
to be recriminations. NU will have its own congress soon and the
cry that is almost certain to be heard is, "Who lost the PPP?" On
this it is clear: If they want to return from the political
wilderness they will have to plan their acts carefully and
tactfully.

First, Abdurrahman Wahid, Yusuf Hasjim and the kyai will have
to pull the reigns to prevent the "political" NU from breaking
further apart -- which tear apart the "social" NU as well.

Second, the politicos should tone down their voice. Strident
"populism" will only alarm the government and scare away
potential support among moderate Moslems which is numbered in
the majority.

It is true that democratization (if this is what they struggle
for) has become a trend around the Third World, but this effort
should come from within the system. They should learn from the
chairwoman of the Indonesian Democratic Party (PDI) Megawati
Soekarnoputri. The mild mannered way in which she answered the
barbed comments of government officials convinced them that they
had nothing to fear from her. So the secret is get into the
system. And to get into it means to talk softly. Get elected and
then, and only then, try to convince the government that some
changes are in order.

The PPP congress will be their best chance to capture the
leadership. It is almost certain that Ismail Hasan will not stand
for re-election. And the MI faction there is no figure strong
enough to take Ismail's mantle, not even Sri Bintang Pamungkas.
If NU plays it right, the leadership will certainly be theirs in
1999.