Will Moscow protect Georgia?

Yevgeny Krutikov, RIA Novosti, Moscow

The Moscow consultations, involving the leaders of South Ossetia, Abkhazia and Adzharia, Georgia's autonomous areas, continued into Friday, Nov. 27. In the morning, Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov met Eduard Kokoity, President of South Ossetia. Mr Kokoity said yesterday that his autonomy would be seeking accession to Russia, and there were both political and historical reasons for that intention.

According to informal reports, fearing that the nationalists who have come to power in Georgia may use force, two of the autonomies inquired into the possibility of getting a kind of a temporary protectorate status in Russia.

This may trigger a world-scale scandal. Europe has long stopped granting protectorate status to sovereign states' autonomous parts. This is also true of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).

Moscow understands that the situation is very difficult and is resisting the radical demands like an immediate accession to the Russian Federation, writes Izvestia paper. Yet, it is using the "territorial integrity" factor to exert pressure to bear on Georgia's future government.

The leaders of South Ossetia and Adzharia are holding discussions in Moscow with senior officials at the Russian foreign ministry, the Cabinet, United Energy Systems Co, and the defense ministry, rather than with each other. The final decision on all the issues on the agenda is a matter of a few days or even hours.

The Russian foreign minister's pronouncement to the effect that if the developments in Tbilisi deteriorate, Russia will not be able to guarantee Georgia's territorial integrity any more stirred up the negotiating process. Mr Ivanov said this near the Georgian parliament building after talks with the opposition leaders and when he realized what was going on in the city.

The situation in Georgia is taking a dramatic turn. The leading candidate for the presidency, Mikhail Saakashvili, holds such radical views on the problem of Georgia's autonomies and ethnic minorities that Tskhinvali, Sukhumi and Batumi rushed to barricade themselves, place their armed forces on high alert and seek Russia's protection.

Tbilisi will hardly take radical action before the presidential elections or immediately after them, although there is no 100% guaranty it will not. The autonomies do not really believe in normal relations with even the team of "velvet revolutionaries," furthermore so that the rhetoric about good-neighborly relations with Russia is winding down.