Will militant violence turn Mindanao into new Bosnia?

Will a wave of violence from Muslim militants turn Mindanao into another Bosnia? Federico V. Magdalena tries to answer this question.

Recent events in the Philippines, as elsewhere, seem to suggest a growing trend towards Islamic militancy. Philippine President Fidel Ramos recently referred to "Mindanao as a new Bosnia". Mindanao is the largest island in the country, where "international terrorism" could well turn the 25-year-old conflict between Muslims and Christians into a full-scale civil war. At present, political autonomy for the Moros (or Muslim Filipinos) is a subject of peaceful negotiation between the government and the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF).

That notwithstanding, could Mindanao still become a new Bosnia?

Let us examine the realities. Mindanao is home to some 14 million people, about a quarter of whom are Muslims who are concentrated in the western and southern parts of the island. This translates to five of the island's 23 provinces being Muslim-dominated, while the rest are inhabited by the Christian majority. But the MNLF considers its homeland as consisting of 13 provinces and all the cities therein, and since 1970 has waged a struggle for an independent state covering these areas.

Of late, the situation in Muslim Mindanao seems to be getting out of hand, with some groups becoming more radical than before. Kidnapping, murder, family feuds and so on, have occurred almost unchecked. The protracted conflict has also taken its toll on the MNLF, which has suffered from factionalism and internal strife. Some MNLF bands "lost commands", as they are called, have even descended to simple banditry.

Weary, a small but more militant Islamic group emerged in 1992, under the name Abu Sayaff, which has pressed for an "Islamic state" in Mindanao. Its leader, Abdulrajak Janjalani, has become a most wanted man with a bounty of US$58,000 on his head. The Abu Sayaff was responsible for a series of kidnappings of Christian and Chinese businessmen, priests and nuns, and foreigners in 1993-1994, and the execution of 15 Christians on Basilan Island.

The attack in Ipil town, Mindanao, on April 3, 1995, that left 100 Christians dead and scores injured was again attributed to the Abu Sayaff, although an unknown group, calling itself the "Islamic Command Council", proudly claimed credit for it.

The public is well aware that these acts of the Abu Sayaff and the "lost commands" are individual aberrations that, if left to their own, could spawn a major religious war. Though appearing active and not contained by the Philippine military, these Islamic militants do not get mass support even among Muslims, but rather condemnation from all sides.

The Catholic bishops of Mindanao have denounced the Abu Sayaff for singling out or preying upon Christian missionaries: while they "profess belief in God" they "direct their criminal actions against the Christian communities and institutions". For their part, the Muslim leaders, such as the ulema and politicians, dub Sayaff members as "barbaric" and "un-Islamic" for slaughtering innocent and helpless Christians, thus encouraging inter- religious animosity.

The image the Abu Sayaff and other notorious Islamic groups have left on the public mind-set, is one of "Islamic fundamentalism". But Islamic fundamentalism as a western label is a colossal misreading of Islam itself. Islam is basically fundamental; it is inherent upon every Muslim to know and propagate Islam as a religion of peace. A "good" Muslim neither kills the innocent nor terrorizes his neighbors. There are, of course, bad elements. And careful scrutiny suggests that these elements are few and isolated, and are plainly criminals rather than rebels fighting for a cause. Average Muslims are unanimous in rejecting them.

Thanks to a multisectoral group, Muslim-Christian dialog has kept the lines of communications open when a crisis situation breaks out. Moreover, while the Muslim masses do not sympathize with the Abu Sayaff and their cohorts, they fear retaliation if they speak out openly against them.

Support

Does receiving support from international terrorists groups (for example, from Ahmed Yousef, who is allegedly behind the New York World Trade Center bombing) make the Abu Sayaff dangerous? The Manila government's claim that it does, is not enough grounds to drive fear into the public consciousness that another Bosnia is in the making.

A considered analysis suggests that, overall, these "extremists" pose no significant threat to regional or national security because of their small group size, limited area of operations and lack of popular support. The Abu Sayaff and "lost commands" are not only few, with active members running to a couple of dozen, but they operate over a circumscribed territory. They confine their nefarious activities within the island province of Basilan, and parts of Sulu and Tawi-Tawi provinces. There have been no reported sightings of the Abu Sayaff in other areas, though there have been activities of insignificant "lost commands" which, occasionally, find their way into the daily newspapers.

Whatever it is, the isolated cases of "Islamic extremism" associated with these groups should concern all Filipinos, Muslims and Christians alike. Though at present an insignificant minority, the initial "successes" of the Abu Sayaff might well inspire "misguided" youths who, out of desperation and social marginalization, might decide to tread the wrong path.

Moreover, the trouble these extremists have sown could grow significantly if a similar group of misguided Christians takes revenge against equally innocent Muslims. This could well repeat the bloody confrontation of the early 1970s, when thousands of Christians and Muslims cut each other's throats. Mindanao could thus well turn into another Bosnia, if the minority of troublemakers succeed in infecting the majority of peace-loving Christians and Muslims.

As such, the Filipino public wants to see both the MNLF and the government playing new, proactive roles to prevent a conflagration. It wants the MNLF to do something about the "bad" elements within its ranks. From the government, the public wants some image-cleansing of the stigma associated with the Philippine military's perceived involvement in some equally unsavory acts. Only once these steps are taken can the public get assurance that Mindanao's simmering strife will not boil over into a full- fledged religious war.

Dr. Federico V. Magdalena is Director of Research at Mindanao State University, Philippines, and is currently a Research Fellow in ASEAN Affairs at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore.