Will Iran be the next United States target?

Viktor Kremenyuk, RIA-NOVOSTI, Moscow

George W. Bush recently said the United States could launch a military campaign against Iran. The statement stirred intense debate. This means warfare could spread to other areas of Asia already torn by the continuous conflicts in Afghanistan, Iraq, Tajikistan and Chechnya, and where the situation in Pakistan and Kurdistan is rather turbulent. In addition, opposition between regional nuclear powers, China, India, and Pakistan, persists.

Washington could turn Iran into yet another theater of military operations, which could produce a "critical mass" effect in Asia, a region long ripped by conflicts and tensions managed by the U.S. military. If so, a major hotbed of hostilities could emerge in such a large region. Or that could remain yet another of Washington's venture.

The word "venture" is not being used to offend the U.S. and tarnish the American president's image. It conveys the nature of Washington's activities in Asia. Indeed, Washington has been playing with fire on a powder keg in the region. Americans are aware of this, but for some reason they believe nothing terrible will come of it.

Having won a relatively easy victory in Afghanistan, the U.S. has got stuck in Iraq. It can hardly win in Iraq because regular armies cannot defeat guerrilla troops. In addition, those who support Bush today can take to the streets tomorrow as the American troops' death toll continues to grow, but no success has been achieved. The U.S. campaign in Iraq increasingly looks like a rash operation and could trigger an outburst of violence in the sensitive Middle East and the Persian Gulf region.

When Bush set out his doctrine of fighting international terrorism in summer 2001, he mentioned the "axis of evil," i.e. Iraq, Iran, and North Korea, among the countries the U.S. intended to fight with. It seems to have started moving in that direction.

Moving along that road the U.S. could encounter surprises and take action that could aggravate the situation. America is considered to have achieved an absolute victory over the Taliban in Afghanistan. However, Talibs are still active in the country's vast territory along the border with Pakistan, showing no signs of being crushed. On the contrary, they seem to be resolved to continue their attacks. Iraq has not been conquered and will hardly ever be conquered as the U.S. simply doesn't have the resources to bring it under control.

If the U.S. ventures to attack Iran, it will, apparently, opt for an air strike. Iran is able to rebuff air attacks. The prospect for the U.S. in that event will be military defeat and withdrawal from the region that will resemble its withdrawal from Vietnam in the early 1970s. Washington's opponents, both countries and terrorist organizations, will rejoice at its withdrawal. The global community must understand that. And it is particularly important that Russia, India, and China should understand that since developments in the region affect them the most.

President Bush has demonstrated a tendency to overestimate his country's strength and underestimate other countries. Thus far that tendency has not brought about any terrible consequences for the U.S. and the rest of the world. But what if the American president demonstrates his inability to take a sober look at reality while tackling some serious issue and his country suffers a defeat as a result?

These are the questions to be answered while Washington is considering launching a military operation against Iran. The risk of war with Iran is high, and who will be responsible for its consequences?

The writer is deputy director of the U.S.A. and Canada Institute.