Will history repeat itself?

By Patrick Schwarz

SEMARANG, Central Java (JP): Americans were quite unabashed in 1976, calling anybody names commensurate with what was thought of them. To them, then president Jimmy Carter was Peanut-Jimmy C., the man who was presiding over the United States' most shallow administration.

Peanut-Jimmy C. had just given the United States' staunchest ally, Taiwan, a public slap in the face. He clearly showed them what it was worth being the world's strongest country's ally by telling them to get lost, making a deal with the communists and switching diplomatic recognition over to mainland China.

And thus branded the former U.S. ally a "renegade", a name Taiwan, or the Republic of China, still bears today. That was the turning of a major page in the history of the Asia-Pacific.

So the "renegade" went about its business on its own. It turned into a virtual island, not just a geographical one, isolated in a global sea. Yet Taiwan became the world's 14th largest trading nation. And it went through an almost miraculous political transformation.

Then Taiwanese president Chiang Jing Kuo -- son of dictator extraordinaire Chiang Kai Shek who died two years previously -- had the genes of the dictator's second wife, a farmer's daughter and a kind and gentle woman. Chiang Jing abolished marshal law and set in motion an incredible transformation.

The country went from a military dictatorship to an exemplary democracy in less than 20 years. Even the ruling party, Kuo Ming Tang, which in the past served as the dictator's tool of oppression along with the army, went through a complete transformation and is serving the nation today in a democratic manner along with the major opposition party, the DPP.

Taiwan, or the Republic of China, is a democracy which should serve as an example to many struggling nations in the Asia- Pacific. They keep their house in order and continue to clean it relentlessly.

At the risk of alienating their big brother across the Formosa Strait, they intend to stay staunchly independent. Their economy is robust. So much so that the ongoing Asian crisis has just ruffled a few feathers -- nothing more.

The new generation "renegade" goes about its business with the confidence normally found in the old world.

Albeit it this old world still refuses to show Taiwan due respect and recognition, and will not let them gain access to organizations through which we deal with each other globally, such as the United Nations.

Now, isn't it ironic that 23 years after his cowardly act, Peanut-Jimmy C. built up enough courage to visit the "renegade", which owes its name to him and which he so unashamedly abandoned? Intent on making history by being the ambassador for democracy to the world, he probably even believes his deplorable act initiated the democratization process in Taiwan.

And that very same man then came to Indonesia on that very same trip, fully intent on endorsing the legitimacy of another dictator extraordinaire: Soeharto of Indonesia.

This is heavy, but it can be explained. And let bygones be bygones and give the man a more respectful name, for now. Former U.S. president Jimmy Carter just visited Indonesia at the invitation of President B.J. Habibie. The idea is that Carter's organization, to show the world the upcoming elections will have been held legally and fairly, should act as a watchdog over the polls, which will be a major milestone in the Republic of Indonesia's relatively short history.

A milestone because, as we all hope, they will serve as an instant transition from a dictatorship extraordinaire to a fully- fledged democracy. How very smart and how very cunning. We all know that President Habibie is a very smart man. But we also know that he is all but family with the former dictator and a product of the man he used to refer to as SGS (Super-genius Soeharto). And all that should have changed over the past 12 months?

In a recent general mood swing, the press wants to make us believe the economic crisis in Indonesia is not that bad after all. But that is not true. Extreme poverty is all but reality if one dares to look beyond ones still fairly well-protected residential enclaves. It is only not as visible as it would be if this were not Indonesia, which has always known an extremely wide gap between the "haves" and the "have nots".

No matter what the foreign press and know-it-all institutions like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) want to make us believe, the Indonesian people are suffering severely.

It is not the IMF and its ill-conceived advice which has prevented the "number of people living below the poverty line" from dropping from an approximate 30 million before the crisis to 70 million. As we all know, the billions of dollars that have been paid out by the IMF have not trickled down to the level where they are needed most, but only serve certain parties as funds to manipulate for political gains. The IMF's actions make one believe they do not want the recovery of the Indonesian economy or an improvement in the welfare of her people, but a return to precrisis greedy capitalism.

If the severe crisis does not appear so bad, then it is only the ordinary people of Indonesia themselves who make it seem so because there are no other people in the world as capable of enduring injustice and hardship with a smile. Take any people of a lesser dignity and this place would be in chaos which would make Kosovo look like a picnic or the recurring flare-ups in West Kalimantan and Ambon look like the prom.

And, if anything good has come out of this crisis so far, it is the fact that it has toppled the dictator and set the process of democratization in motion.

There is even a democratic game emerging among ordinary Indonesians: A popularity vote, trying to determine who will emerge victorious in the elections -- the nearest thing to the polls as we know them in the West. At the moment, Megawati Soekarnoputri of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) is a clear favorite, with Amien Rais of the National Mandate Party (PAN) following a close second.

Naughty ruling Golkar, associated with the ills of the past, seems to be in a distant last despite a make-believe turnaround, flashy television commercials and public funds which are being wasted to assure security for its ministers participating in the campaign.

Contrary to common belief, ordinary Indonesians; the worker who has lost his job in a factory due to the crisis and now survives by growing cassava in his home village, the barman at a favorite watering hole, the girl peddling krupuk at a food stall, the accountant at the small trading firm which has not shut down yet; who seemed to be politically apathetic under the rule of the dictator are now politically alert and engaged.

Women highly favor Megawati, for obvious reasons. If we can believe those jovial popularity votes, then Megawati and Amien might form a coalition. And if they do end up ruling, it will be because the Indonesian people wanted them to.

At last, Indonesians will have been rewarded for the sufferings they endured in the crisis and emerge a stronger, truly free people intent on taking their destiny into their own hands, ready to begin rebuilding their democratic nation.

But, will it be? Will the old powers that were, which control most of the nation's money, let go just like that? Are not the Americans worried that a new, free, democratic Indonesian nation could allow a federal state to emerge, risking a falling apart of the nation, thus becoming a security problem in the Asia-Pacific? Would not the Germans, the French and the Japanese love to see President Habibie remain firmly in control because they know they can have their way with him and business inevitably will come their way?

What tricks does Golkar -- which has no intention of giving in to current trends just like that -- have up its sleeves come elections time? Can not money, in a country that has been exposed to the most blatant corruption for 30 years under a corrupt dictator, still buy almost anybody? Are the Indonesians not the most forgiving people in the world, and will those clinging to power not get away with it? Does not the IMF's money go to those who intend to hang on to power? Will Peanut-Jimmy C. not be manageable and endorse the whole thing? And would not Southeast Asia be a safer, more stable and more predicable place if the powers that be are kept in place? Will history repeat itself?

The writer is a businessman based in Semarang