Why China is going easy on Taiwan for now

By Ching Cheong

SINGAPORE: Chinese leaders holding their annual retreat at Beidaihe resort have decided to put on hold all military options to solve the Taiwan issue for five years, according to sources.

The move affirms a more flexible approach which has begun to take shape since the middle of last month.

According to a source, the leaders arrived at the decision after taking stock of the Taiwanese situation in the five months since the March 18 election, won by pro-independence President Chen Shui-bian.

Sources said Beijing viewed the development gravely and considered it to be one of the four major incidents in the last year which threatened China's national security.

The other three were the bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade, the crackdown on the Falungong movement and former Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui's controversial "two states" theory.

Chinese President Jiang Zemin was quoted as saying that "an important lesson to be learnt from the failure in our work towards Taiwan, which saw a deterioration from one China to two Chinas, is that only until we are fully prepared to reclaim it by force would there be a chance for peaceful unification".

He also reportedly said the more Beijing was confronted by major threats, the more it should adhere to former patriarch Deng Xiaoping's teaching, and focus on China's economic development first.

These two points, taken together, suggest that China has come to a sober understanding that it is not ready yet to reclaim Taiwan by military means.

Perhaps this explains why a military option would not be considered for at least five years.

Lu Jianhua of the Academy of Social Sciences thinks Beijing may not yet be prepared.

He cited a recent statement by Maj. Gen. Yao Youzhi of the Institute of Strategy, at the Chinese Academy of Military Sciences, that "the People's Liberation Army never fights a battle unprepared, nor one it is not sure of winning".

According to Lu, he was explaining why a war of reunification had not been launched -- a question posed by a reader of the People's Daily.

He also dismissed popular claims that the Taiwanese military would collapse on first strike.

"To resist reunification, they have built up a strong defense," the general was quoted as saying.

Lu said: "Since Taiwan estimates that its air supremacy would disappear by 2005, this gives rise to speculation that the five- year moratorium is related to this relative change in the ability to control the air space."

At the same time, the decision to delay indicated Beijing's willingness to modify its own approach to give political settlement -- the least costly means -- a last chance, he said.

He cited Vice-Premier Qian Qichen's recent appeal to both sides to drop futile quibbling over the names of China, and his invitation to the Taiwanese to offer their own reunification model if they found Beijing's unacceptable.

Another example of Beijing's flexibility was evident in the unprecedented invitation to eight African countries, which have diplomatic relations with Taipei, to participate in the China- Africa international symposium in the Chinese capital.

But the five-year grace could also be interpreted as a de facto deadline for Taipei to start reunification talks, according to Lu.

He said Beijing's second White Paper on Taiwan had added a third condition which required the use of force -- if Taiwan tried to delay reunification indefinitely.

While not a formal ultimatum, it, nevertheless, put additional pressure on Taipei.

Although Beijing would not use force, at least in the next five years, it did not mean that pressure on Taiwan would ease, the source said .

After the stock-taking exercise, the Chinese leaders concluded that Chen was even more dangerous than Lee.

While he pledged to uphold the four "nos" -- no to a declaration of independence, referendum, constitutional changes or changes to national symbols -- he has also been actively promoting a "creeping independence", by denying their Chinese identity.

He has also taken concrete steps to allow the military to acquire an offensive capability to resist reunification by force, if necessary.

Diplomatically, he enjoys much stronger support in the US administration and Congress than his predecessor.

This makes him a more difficult leader to deal with, in the view of the Chinese leaders.

To cope with this new situation, Beijing has adopted a dual approach.

On the one hand, it will step up military preparations to prevent any further drift towards separatism.

On the other, it will exercise greater flexibility towards the Taiwanese people to increase the prospect of peaceful reunification.

"For a long time to come, we shall see both heightening military preparation alongside increasingly flexible overtures to Taiwan," said the source.

-- The Straits Times/Asia News Network