Who will be the winners in the 2004 elections?

Who will be the winners in the 2004 elections?

Hank Valentino, Senior advisor, the International Foundation
for Election Systems (IFES), Jakarta

When Indonesia staged successful elections in 1999, a
milestone in democratization was achieved. Voters and citizens
celebrated the transparent and public counting of ballot papers
at more than 300,000 polling places throughout the country.

Now, almost five years later, new democratic reforms are being
implemented as voters will have a voice in the selection of
candidates for the House of Representatives (DPR), Provincial
Legislative Council (DPRD I) and Regional Legislative Council for
regencies (DPRD II), the Regional Representatives Council (DPD),
a new chamber in the national legislature) and the direct
election of the president and vice president. It is true, in more
ways than one, when people say the 2004 elections will be very
different.

But, can the lessons learned from the 1999 elections be
applied to 2004? What about the electorate: Has it changed? What
can we expect in 2004?

While it is too early to predict election outcomes, trends and
similarities are beginning to appear among voters. However, it
must be noted that these trends could change dramatically between
now and the elections.

Look at some of the facts as they stand today: In 1999 there
were approximately 118,000,000 registered voters, with over 93
percent voting. In 2004 there are over 143,000,000 registered
voters, an increase of over 25,000,000, or 21 percent. Early
research data indicates voter turnout will most likely be over 90
percent. Calls for golput (abstention) this time appear to have
had little or no impact.

In looking back to 1999 it is interesting to note that three
months before the election almost two-thirds (62 percent) of
voters had already decided which party they would vote for in the
election. That number increased to 64 percent two months before
the election.

In an IFES survey completed in July 2003, only 19 percent
indicated they did not know which party they would support if the
election were held then. While this does not mean 80 percent of
the voters had already decided how they would vote in 2004, it
does indicate that the political parties and candidates will have
a difficult time swaying votes. Usually it is "floating" voters
that parties and candidates target first, as they are considered
more open to persuasion.

A quick look at respondents who reported how they voted in
1999 and gave their current preferences can give an indication of
the party's retention of voters and the number of voters changing
parties. An average of 44 percent of those responding to the
question indicated they would vote for the same party, while an
average of 11 percent indicated they would vote for a different
one this time.

One other note of caution for 2004: Be alert to those claims
that have tried to categorize or group voters by ethnicity,
geographical location, religious preference, gender, age,
education level, socioeconomic status, urban/rural or any number
of other categories, in order to see if there are trends in a
particular grouping. In some cases it is possible to identify
trends in these categories, such as Party A appears to have more
support in East Java than Party B, or Party C has its highest
level of support in Bali or some other geographical location. If
one were to review the statistics of the 1999 elections, you
would notice, for example, that religious preference alone is not
sufficient for predicting trends. Obviously, all Muslims did not
vote for the same party. However, combinations of categories can
begin to sort out differences and identify trends, such as voters
between the ages of 18 to 25 in urban areas of East Java prefer
Party X by a margin of two to one.

Parties and candidates have begun this analysis. Potential
voters will be scrutinized as never before as parties begin to
evaluate their strengths and determine how to overcome their
weaknesses and gain voters. As the degree of sophistication
increases in the parties, voters will also want more information
than they had in previous elections. Voters will not be satisfied
at the traditional methods of campaigning of the past. Caravans
and demonstrations may command attention, but will not
necessarily win the vote.

The polling data available at this time indicates the 2004
elections are going to be very close and competitive. No party or
candidate has a significant lead at the national level. The
elections are very much in the hands of the voters. Voter demands
for reforms have been heard. Some may argue that the setup for
the 2004 elections is not perfect, but all must agree it is a
step in the right direction.

In the end, it is not the political parties or the KPU that
are driving the elections, but voters -- the electorate. These
should not be viewed as the KPU's or political parties'
elections. The 2004 elections belong to the citizens of
Indonesia. Peaceful participation in the electoral process,
observance of laws and regulations, and respect and tolerance of
the rights and responsibilities of each eligible voter will make
the 2004 elections successful. The 2004 elections will be much
more than the celebratory event of 1999.

Voters will determine the leaders and future direction of the
country. Voters want more information about the parties,
platforms and candidates. The voter of 2004 wants to be an
informed voter, not just a voter. This places more responsibility
on the parties, candidates and the media. The parties and
candidates that listen to the electorate and convince voters they
are able to respond to their demands will be the winners. In the
end, if those parties and candidates do win, the voters and
citizens will be the real winners.

Hank Valentino has worked on elections in more than 20
countries and has worked in Indonesia since January 1999. He
was the Director of the Federal Voting Assistance Program for the
U.S. government.