Whither East Timor?

Whither East Timor?

Significant as it may be, the agreement reached on Thursday in
New York between Indonesia and Portugal for the holding of a
"direct vote" in East Timor, hopefully before August, actually
was not unexpected. In fact, it was rather slow in coming.

After all, since the government's surprise announcement in
January that it was prepared to offer East Timor independence
should the former Portuguese colony reject an offer of full
autonomy within the Republic of Indonesia, it was obvious that
some procedure had to be found to gauge the wishes of the people
of the territory. And it was a procedure which needed to be
internationally credible to produce a lasting and effective
solution to the long-festering problem.

To many political observers, especially those cynical from the
beginning about Indonesia's true intentions with the offer, the
rejection of a referendum by the Indonesian side may indeed look
like an effort to delay a solution -- not an unfair sentiment,
considering this country's decades of stubborn retention of the
territory.

But as Minister of Foreign Affairs Ali Alatas explained on
Thursday, Indonesia's rejection of a a full-fledged referendum
was based on the fear that such a procedure would risk increasing
the violence in the troubled province. A referendum, according to
the foreign minister, would also be too cumbersome to hold under
present circumstances; it would take weeks or months to prepare,
require all voters to be in East Timor for the ballot and
necessitate a replacement of all Indonesian troops by UN security
personnel.

Although details of the procedures to be followed are still
being worked out, it appears the UN-sponsored "direct vote" will
be some kind of simplified referendum in which all East Timorese,
whether at home or abroad, will be allowed to vote. In the words
of Alatas, it will be "the most democratic and direct means
possible to consult the East Timorese".

Whether the proposed ballot will be democratic enough to
satisfy Indonesia's critics, including proindependence East
Timorese, remains to be seen. In the meantime, having gone this
far, there seems to be no other direction for Indonesia than
forward.

For one thing, considering that Indonesia now claims to have
become a true democracy, or at least is striving to become one,
it would be untenable for the country to deny East Timor the
freedom and independence it is claiming for itself. For another,
the government is right in saying that the wishes of the people
of East Timor must be heard if the problem is to be settled once
and for all.

Something which could make it somewhat easier for the country
to let East Timor go is the fact that the 1945 Constitution
defines Indonesian national territory as comprising the entire
territory formerly belonging to the Netherlands East Indies, of
which East Timor was never a part. On the other hand, there are
plenty of Indonesians, especially among the Armed Forces, who
deeply resent the government's offer of independence to the
former Portuguese colony after its integration 23 years ago.

Whatever the case, the die is cast. For this country,
obviously, the best thing that could happen is that the East
Timorese vote for autonomy within the Republic of Indonesia. That
would save the country not only face, but also a good deal of
internal discontent. In this event, Indonesia must in all honesty
guarantee the territory its rights as promised in the agreement.

The other possibility, of course, is the East Timorese opt for
independence. If so, the only thing Indonesians can honorably do
is to fully abide by the decision. This would mean not only a
graceful withdrawal from the area, but also offering it all the
assistance possible to help it to develop and prosper so it can
contribute to the growth and stability of the region.