Which country is calling the shots in East Asia?

Kavi Chongkittavorn, The Nation, Asia News Network, Bangkok

It is official. East Asia will have its first summit in Kuala Lumpur later next year. That much was clear from the recently finished ASEAN summit in Vientiane. As of now, nobody knows exactly what will emerge from the first gathering of the leaders of the 10 Southeast Asian countries, China, Japan and South Korea.

In a way, the Laotian capital was an epoch-making venue. For the first time in the region's history, all of the leaders from East Asia as well as those of India, Australia and New Zealand met back to back in both groups and individually. Together in one meeting, these were the components that would comprise the dream team of the formidable East Asian Community (EAC).

This idea was exactly what Singapore's Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong floated at the summit.India, Australia and New Zealand should be included, he recommended, in the East Asian dialogue and cooperation as they could serve as a countervailing force to the more powerful Northeast Asian countries.

However, this practical view is quickly shot down by Malaysia. Despite the recent thaw in Malaysian-Australian ties, Kuala Lumpur continues its long-standing opposition to Canberra.

Meanwhile Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen noted that if a unified East Asia was to include India, then the East Asia Community should be changed to the Asian Community.

That is what Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has had in mind all along since assuming the leadership of his country early this year. To demonstrate its seriousness, India decided to give an early harvest as part of its free trade agreement package with ASEAN. This was a clever move to increase New Delhi's bargaining power with the grouping. Its quick offer followed hot on the heels of China's FTA negotiations with ASEAN. China and ASEAN signed the FTA on trade in goods and dispute-settlement components in Vientiane. The approach has won accolades from ASEAN countries. Deals on trade in services and investment are expected to be completed soon.

China's enthusiasm for FTAs has already overshadowed Japan's ongoing trade liberalization with individual ASEAN members. Moreover, Japan's bid for a seat on the United Nations Security Council is also in competition with a similar ambitions in India and Indonesia. That is why Jakarta is still withholding its endorsement of Tokyo though other ASEAN members have already gone through with it. It is no secret that while Beijing would back India's ambition, it has vehemently opposed Japan's.

Inevitably, the side-shows and politicking within and outside ASEAN will have a far-reaching effect on the institutionalization of the East Asia Summit and beyond. For instance, ASEAN fears that China, Japan and Korea would dominate the efforts to create a unified East Asia because of their more powerful economies and political clout if the current ASEAN plus three frame was replaced.

When the chairman's statement issued by Laos stated erroreously that ASEAN leaders agreed to have the ASEAN plus three process transformed into the East ASEAN Summit (EAS), some of the ASEAN foreign ministers were unhappy. The statement was later amended and reiterated that they only agreed to convene the East Asian Summit in 2005.

This cautious approach reminds ASEAN of the past. The grouping learned a painful lesson from the establishment of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, or APEC, in 1989. ASEAN and Australia were the prime movers in APEC in the earlier years, but later the U.S. became the main shaker, with its own agenda. It is unlikely that the grouping will let go of an ASEAN-driven process, for the sake of the EAS.

In Vientiane, Malaysian Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi did just that by inviting the ASEAN-plus-three leaders to Kuala Lumpur next year for their first EAS. To others it was a fait accompli for Malaysia. However, at this juncture nobody knows if it will be a one-time event or continue annually eventhough China has ready expressed its readiness to host the second EAS.

After Vientiane, the grouping's energy is zeroed in on future of East Asia. Early next year ASEAN foreign ministers will meet at a special retreat in Cebu, the Philippines, to discuss this issue. The outcome of the second East Asian Forum, scheduled for today in Kuala Lumpur, will also be featured on the ministers agendas. Representatives from government and non-government sectors are taking part in the forum.

To accelerate the whole process, China will also host the first East Asian Expert Group meeting in April to sharpen the focus of East Asia. By that time the modality of the EAS and EAC will have become clearer. Obviously most East Asian experts would agree that economic cooperation should be the first and most important pillar of the EAC. Cooperation in non-economic matters will take time and is considered a non-starter for now due to divergent views and national interests within East Asia. Experts contend that only economic cooperation can "glue" the East Asian countries together.

If that is the case, the EAC will in a long run include security and social pillars, akin to ASEAN's three communities envisaged in the Vientiane Plan of Action. For ASEAN, economic cooperation has always been the top priority in the groupings overall schemes of cooperation.

As things stand now, China is taking the lead in East Asia, particularly in the field of economics. Its economic posture since 2000 has already set precedents for others to follow on FTAs. China's accession to the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia (TAC) induced Japan, India, Russia and South Korea to follow suit. New Zealand Prime Minister Helen Clark told the ASEAN leaders in Vientiane that her country was positively considering acceding to the TAC pending discussions with other political parties in her country. If Auckland agrees to do so, it would isolate Canberra even further.

Australia has chosen to identify ASEAN as a collective- security arrangement and the TAC as a non-aggression pact. The grouping faulted Canberra for viewing the treaty's accession as an impediment to its security role and alliance with the U.S. ASEAN does not buy this argument because Japan and South Korea, which are equally committed U.S. allies, have already signed on. Both countries treat the TAC as a code of regional conduct for peaceful coexistence and cooperation as ASEAN is not a military alliance.

Like it or not, China's path-finding in East Asia will continue until Japan and South Korea wake up and realize they have to and can do more.