Where scientists fail and animals manage to succeed

Ranjith Premalal De Silva, The Island, Asia News Network, Dhaka

It is an accepted fact that our geologists were unable to predict the occurrence of the catastrophic earthquake and the influx of destructive tsunamis. This is not a weakness of our scientists. Globally, earthquake prediction at the present time is far from an exact science and forecasts made in the past have not been very encouraging. It is a professional practice not to make erroneous predictions when sufficient information is not available to make a fair judgment.

In fact, there is a void in the scientific prediction arena and therefore non-geologists make moves to capitalize on the situation. If these predictions are based on astrological observations, the learned public may accept it on spiritual grounds.

However, it is rather scary to note that scientists who have no background on seismology or geology give a wide publicity to their whimsical fantasies as scientific predictions. Meteorological Department officials, who have not been able to perform their mandated tasks of meteorological forecasts, are now busy with issuing warnings and predictions on earthquakes and Tsunamis. They also believe that they can preach the public on safety measures in a situation of tsunami inundation. Further, these egomaniacs are far too stubborn and ignorant to realize the damage they can cause to the safety of the public by dissemination of fantasies and burrowed ideas.

Today, the earthquake predictions are mostly based on spatial statistical techniques although data on geophysical, geological and chemical processes are also acquired for supplementary information.

There is no sufficient historical data to formulate statistical hypotheses for earthquake prediction. Further, the present predictions of earthquakes of destructive magnitude do not specify the time of occurrence. A ten year prediction might only indicate the year but not the month.

These predictions are primarily based on a statistical determination of recurrence frequency of major tsunamigenic earthquakes in a well defined geographical region of the Pacific. It is fairly simple to determine the return periods of small earthquakes which occur very frequently. For these events, we have a stock of historical data. Destructive tsunamigenic earthquakes are difficult to model as we do not have sufficient past records of these rare events. However, short term tsunami predictions are possible immediately after the occurrence of a major earthquake. Due to the difficulties of direct prediction of the occurrence of earthquakes, scientist have explored surrogate methods.

Several studies focused on the observation of animal behavior suggest that the recognition of unusual animal behavior in a systematic way, in combination with other ancillary data could be used as a means of predicting devastating earthquakes.

Scientists in China have observed snakes coming out of hibernation, more rats surfacing on to the ground, intensified activity and atypical behavior in large domestic animals such as cows, horses, dogs, and pigs before an earthquake strikes.

On these lines, some reports indicate animals like goats refusing to eat or go into pens, cats and dogs picking up their offsprings and carrying them outdoors, pigs squealing strangely, chickens dashing out of coops, birds leaving their nets in the middle of the night, fish swimming about aimlessly.

Further, insect congregation in huge swarms near the seashore, cattle seeking higher grounds, agitation in other domestic animals have been found to be reported before earthquakes occur. A survey has conformed that the largest number of cases of atypical behavior precedes the earthquake, particularly in the 24 hour period before it strikes.

In some cases in China, the unusual behavior of rats, fish and snakes has been observed even three days prior to an episode of an earthquake. In Japan, large quantities of some specific species of fish have been caught prior to earthquakes.

Such behavior immediately prior to an earthquake is not difficult to explain. As seismic Primary (P) waves travel faster through the earth crust than the associated Secondary (S) waves by roughly 2-4 kilometers per second. If animals are sensitive enough to detect vibrations accompanying the arrival of P waves, that sense could provide enough of a warning to trigger a death- avoiding response immediately prior to the arrival of deadly S waves. Only in very close proximity to the epicenter will the shaking begin without appreciable warning.

An extensive survey has identified 58 kinds of domestic and wild animals that have shown unusual behavior before earthquakes. In the case of pigeons, scientists have found the location of the body sensory organs which are sensitive to the microfacturing of rocks prior to an earthquake. Electromagnetic changes that take place prior to a devastating earthquake affect migrating birds and the navigational ability of fish. Animals may have got additional mechanisms for protecting their lives from natural calamities. Virtually, all animals possess instinctive responses to escape from predators and fire. In humans, these responses are known as panic and are associated with rapid release of adrenalin which heightens the sensory awareness.

Accordingly, scientists have made an attempt to produce sensors which can mimic the response stimuli of animals to earthquakes. In view of the importance of animal behavior in earthquake prediction, China has established an experimental station in 1968 for earthquake prediction through biological observations.

During the recent calamity, although loss of thousands of lives was reported, not much was heard of the loss of animal life. The entire extents of Yala and Bundala national parks were washed off and the wildlife cannot survive unless an alarming mechanism worked in them. In addition, considerable domestic animals live in the coastal areas of the country and a study of the fate of these animals might reveal significant facts confirming the scientific findings elsewhere in the world.

The writer is President of Geo-Informatics Society of Sri Lanka and Senior Lecturer at University of Peradeniya.