Where is technology headed in 2002?

Zatni Arbi, Columnist, Jakarta, zatni@cbn.net.id

What will the information technology landscape look like in the year 2002? If nothing had happened on Sept. 11, we would have predicted similar trends to what we have been witnessing this year. We would have seen faster microprocessors with more advanced capabilities, more features on cellphones and PDAs, perhaps one or two emerging technologies in wireless communications, and more.

Inventions this year, despite the slowing economy, would give more color to our lives in 2002.

In the biotechnology area, we would have had increasingly heated discussions on human cloning following the announcement by Advanced Cell Technology on Nov. 25 that they had successfully developed a method for creating human embryos through cloning.

In the transportation field, Dean Kamen's Segway self- propelled scooter -- nicknamed Ginger before it was officially announced -- might have taken center stage in 2002.

But the fact is that the horrifying events of Sept. 11 did occur.

The attacks, which took everybody by surprise, have undoubtedly changed the future course of technology. First of all, very few -- perhaps only Hollywood movie producers and directors -- would have believed that a group of people, with enough intelligence to learn how to pilot a passenger plane, would really be prepared to end their own lives and the lives of many thousands of innocent people for a cause that they believed in.

Second, very few would have thought a commercial airliner could be used as a weapon.

And just days after the aircraft had slammed into the WTC and Pentagon buildings, bio-terrorism ceased being just a threat and instead became a deadly reality. After several people had died of anthrax inhalation, the U.S. scrambled to stockpile enough Cipro pills for its entire population.

As if to emphasize the seriousness of suicide squad threats in many parts of the world, we were later shocked to see so many suicide bombers killing themselves and others in the Middle East. Some call these human bomb-carriers terrorists, while others call them martyrs and defenders of the oppressed.

But the fact remains -- what these people have done is to take away our feelings of safety and security. Those who work in high- rise buildings anywhere in the world now know that they are in a place that is not as secure and safe as they once thought. Those who fly are now more aware than ever that they might not make it back to the ground alive. Worse, deadly viruses can now come through an innocent-looking item of mail.

With this frightening series of events unfolding, it is not surprising that experts from a range of industries have been scrambling to find ways in which technology could be used to prevent similar attacks from occurring in the future. People working in the fields of transportation, construction design, defense and armaments, surveillance and information technology have been shifting their focus to investigate new ways of curbing violent attacks on innocent members of the public.

In the aviation industry, there has been talk of reinforcing cockpits and making them bulletproof. However, that would significantly increase the weight of aircraft and reduce their fuel efficiency -- something aircraft makers have worked hard on improving over the years.

Tests are also underway on weapons that would paralyze a hijacker without puncturing a hole in the fuselage. The question is, what if passengers become victims of stray bullets? Would it not be better to prevent hijackers from boarding the plane in the first place rather than trying to tackle them when the plane is already in the sky?

Given this background, here are some of the trends that might shape the technology industry in 2002.

Surveillance will be everywhere in airport buildings. Do not be surprised if you are asked by an immigration officer to look into a small camera on top of a PC, as the image of your face is captured and entered on a database. Along with biometrics, face recognition will be one technology receiving a lot of attention from now on.

Of course, multiple databases need to be able to interface with one another. Today, efforts are underway to enable the FBI's databases to communicate with those belonging to the INS (Immigration and Naturalization Service), the Department of Justice and other law enforcement agencies.

Huge data warehouses and strong data mining capabilities will be in greater demand, as law enforcers will want to know more about the profiles and other characteristics of the people they should be watching closely. The speed at which data can flow between these agencies will become more crucial than ever in strengthening security, and efforts to advance the construction of high-speed networks will therefore increase.

The need for speedier communications between hospitals, labs and pharmaceutical companies has now become clear. An integrated enterprise resource planning (ERP) system that ties them all together will be the key to a rapid emergency response in the event of biochemical attacks. ERP vendors should have a busy year ahead.

Internet security will receive even more attention next year, and that will include finding new ways to "eavesdrop". There will be less protest from proponents of privacy rights, as it has become quite clear what can happen if the pendulum swings too far in the direction of their cause.

Virtual reality has been around for several years, and doctors have participated in intricate, remote surgical operations using the technology. Perhaps the experience of Sept. 11 might prompt the industry to explore the use of virtual reality to enable pilots traveling in an escorting plane to fly an aircraft remotely and bring it in to land safely in the event that its flight crew becomes disabled.

Computers' capacities have come a long way in recent times. In the frantic quest to prevent attacks involving biological and chemical agents, it is not too far-fetched to imagine the industry starting to explore the possibility of using artificial sensors to sniff out explosives or other suspect chemical substances to aid our canine friends, who have been doing an excellent job in detecting illegal drugs at major airports throughout the world.

One issue that has not received enough attention and deserves a closer focus is the security of subways. God forbid, but if massive explosions and fire should ever break out in the maze of railway tunnels some 20 meters beneath a city, one can imagine the magnitude of destruction - and suffering - that they might cause. Far more surveillance devices should be deployed on subway platforms.

The collapse of the twin towers in New York City showed us the importance of having an effective disaster recovery plan. The necessary hardware and software products have matured, but the awareness of their importance is certainly not yet commonplace. Incidentally, perhaps the recent fire that destroyed the ninth floor of our Ministry of Industry and Trade building will remind us of the need to have backup data held at an off-site storage facility.

Robots will have to become more than just companions or toys. They will need to carry out tasks that are too dangerous for human beings, such as finding and turning off the source of a deadly chemical outflow. At any rate, 2002 will see a lot of progress in digital technology beyond just the MHz and the GB.