Where does TNI stand?

In today's changing Indonesian society, the military (TNI) often appears to be standing between two worlds. Many people still oppose the military's dual function in which it is given unwarranted power with its unelected seats in the House of Representatives. In the future People's Consultative Assembly (MPR), the country's highest constitutional body, it will be allocated 38 seats.

On the other hand, in crucial circumstances like the MPR's Special Session, scheduled for November and during which a president will be elected, military votes will have both decisive and controversial meanings because facing off will be incumbent President B. J. Habibie of the Golkar Party and his challenger, Megawati Soekarnoputri, chairwoman of the triumphant Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan).

Although the exact power garnered by each candidate will not be known before the final results of the June 7 general election are announced later this week, some acceptable calculations indicate that neither candidate will be strong enough to fight alone. They will need support from other factions in the MPR.

Besides two other major political parties, members of the MPR will include 135 regional representatives, 65 representatives of professional groups, the military faction and, last but not least, the Indonesian Mandate Party (PAN), the smallest among the five leading political factions. Although it is predicted that PAN will have only about 40 seats -- like the military -- its role in the absence of an absolute majority will also be crucial. This is not to mention the possibility of desertions by many faction members who have personal views of certain candidates.

So, the show promises to be highly controversial -- especially for the military -- because Habibie is perceived by the people to represent the ugliness of the fallen corrupt regime of president Soeharto, while Megawati is a leader of a party which is emerging as the biggest winner of a democratic poll.

Some short-sighted generals might believe that voting for Habibie will strengthen the military's position in facing the next century, but they need to reconsider this train of thought because most people will consider the military's vote for Habibie an utter humiliation of the country's first taste of democracy in decades and a blatant effort to preserve the status quo.

Moreover, many people predict the reelection of Habibie will provoke student demonstrations and bloody protests by fanatic followers of Megawati. If this happens, the military will only find itself in a poor position because it lacks the capability to quench such a revolt.

Many people may look at this dilemma as merely a matter of voting or not. Some political observers have called on the military to remain neutral in the presidential election -- a stance it took during the general election -- because they believe it would be beneficial for the future of the military itself.

But the problem is that inaction does not mean neutrality, especially in a serious crisis. Should the military remain neutral in the case of the election leading to a deadlock, the question is: will the military remain inactive if a deadlock leads to the country having no president?

Under such circumstances perhaps the military would decide to back Megawati, which, judging by preliminary election results, would be in keeping with most people's aspirations and would be a move toward upholding democracy. Also, Megawati's party is, by and large, closer to the military's concepts on many issues than other political entities, especially its concept on political reform which is not so assertive, if not orthodox.

PDI Perjuangan has declared that it will oppose any efforts to amend the Constitution, will take Soeharto to court on corruption charges and will be tolerant of the military's dual function.