Where does India stand under Bush govt?
NEW DELHI: There is now a strange quietness about Indo-U.S. relations, especially after the noisy post-Pokhran quarrel and the equally boisterous visit by Bill Clinton, but some positive things are happening. The current disposition of foreign policy forces in Washington is different from the one that prevailed under Clinton.
You have a vice-president and a defense secretary who are essentially products of the Cold War and may tend to think of India as a Russian ally, if only by reflex action. Indeed, Rumsfeld did make critical remarks about Russia supplying nuclear fuel to India, which obliged foreign minister Jaswant Singh to point out that they were covered by safeguards of the International Atomic Energy Agency.
There is a national security advisor who is hawkish on Russia and China, but is apparently well-disposed towards India. Secretary of State Colin Powell is perceived as being a moderate -- he didn't want to go to war against Saddam Hussein -- and what looks like a lack of enthusiasm may, in fact, be sobriety and impartiality, which could suit India well.
The overall effect of their combined personalities on the American approach towards India may be less rhetoric, cool perusal and concrete steps. A good thing. The content of the relationship has also undergone a change. There are no insuperable obstacles in sight: the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty wasn't ratified by the U.S. Congress, the document is dead, at least for the time being; sanctions, everyone agrees, will be lifted in the next six months.
Remains the question of where India stands in the new American foreign policy perspective. Jaswant Singh's visit coincided with the American spy plane incident and the necessary contrasts were immediately established by some commentators in Washington.
It is, however, unlikely that the United States will either effect a dramatic shift in its overall policy of engagement with China, there is too much money involved. Or that, Washington thinks India has the strength to counterbalance China from a security point of view.
Besides which, the only subcontinental security issues that form a part of the U.S.'s geopolitical vision are a potential nuclear standoff between India and Pakistan, terrorism and Afghanistan.
Which brings us to trade. There is the slowdown, software exports are rising, but also the U.S. market has declined somewhat, Dabhol is going through another bitter experience due to what many American businessmen would consider renegade contractual behavior on the part of the state government and the U.S. trade representative has presented a rather unflattering report.
These are problems that are not going to go away because of deep-rooted political and cultural reasons. India will have to wait before Americans start taking the kind of interest that the Chinese have earned for themselves in the last 20 years.
-- The Statesman/Asia News Network