What to expect after Tommy arrest -- more terror?

Emmy Fitri, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

Public expectations from the outcome of the arrest and detention of Hutomo "Tommy" Mandala Putra may not quite equate with the current reality.

The people may want justice, an end to violence, but in recent days a bomb exploded on a railway track linking Cikampek and Cirebon, more bombs were found in the capital and violence flared up again in Poso after a relatively long period of calm.

Such incidents may not be related to the arrest and subsequent questioning of Tommy, but these occurrences have raised speculations about a possible link.

This would not be the first time that a series of violent incidents have been linked to the youngest son of former president Soeharto.

Even when he was at large, several violent incidents were linked to Tommy. They include the fatal shooting of Justice Syafiuddin Kartasasmita and a string of bomb blasts in Jakarta.

Long before that, many people associated bomb blasts, rioting and even interreligious and ethnic clashes to the questioning and the abrogated trial of Tommy's father, Soeharto.

It is no surprise as Soeharto and his well-endowed family -- popularly known as the Cendana family -- are wealthy and have access to the military elite.

Many military and police officers as well as high-ranking government officials owe their positions and wealth to Soeharto.

Conflict and Peace Research Network (Concern) coordinator Hermawan Sulistyo suspects that some members of the military elite may be behind the various violent incidents in the country.

The ultimate aim of these actions being to distract the public from the former first family, the problem currently plaguing the Golkar Party and investigation into past human rights violations committed by the military.

"This is the tactic used by the police, military and government officials in the 1980s to divert public attention from certain potential major issues," Hermawan said.

"These are strategies that are still used now, even though we already have a different political and social setting," Hermawan remarked.

For Hermawan, who was a member of the joint fact-finding team for the 1998 May riots, such a pattern of violence could easily be detected because field operators in the terror attacks were mostly linked to the military, and police were also aware of this.

"If this is revealed Tommy and his family will not only be punished for graft or the current charges, I think more severe punishment awaits them," Hermawan said.

Despite the clear facts and reasonable arguments, there is no way law enforcers can prove the links or manage to arrest the masterminds.

According to criminologist Adrianus Meliala, the police thus far have only been able to catch some field operators, but not the masterminds of those violent incidents.

"Police and other law enforcers only work within the narrow framework of collecting evidence in the field and do not connect those findings with any larger political influence," he said.

Hermawan warned that if the security apparatus failed to uncover the masterminds behind the violent incidents, more incidents would occur in the near future.

He suspected that the bomb explosion on the railway line between Cikampek and Cirebon served as a warning from Tommy to the security apparatus to ease the pressure on him.

"We can expect an escalation of violence after the railway bombing. We can expect these to occur in public places, and if this happens it will claim many lives," he said.

Following that, Hermawan predicted that state symbols including government offices would become the next bomb targets. Now, the choice for the police is clear: stop it by bringing the masterminds to justice or let it go.

Coincidences?

1. Tommy is indicted for a land scam -- April 1, 1999; 2. Attorney General's Office confirms reports that Soeharto's family possesses three lavish mansions in London -- April 19, 1999; 3. Soeharto's city arrest is extended by 20 days -- May 1, 2000; 4. Government puts Soeharto under house arrest -- May 29, 2000; 5. The Supreme Court reaches a verdict and sentences Tommy to 18 months imprisonment -- Sept. 21, 2000; 6. President Abdurrahman Wahid turns down Tommy's request for a pardon -- Nov. 2, 2000; 7. Tommy flees -- Nov. 3, 2000; 8. Tommy is declared a fugitive -- Nov. 4, 2000; 9. Authorities consider reopening Soeharto case -- Nov. 9, 2000; 10. Tommy's home in Menteng is seized by authorities -- Nov. 15, 2000; 11. Cendana family is lying about Tommy, say police -- Nov. 23, 2000; 12. Police find Tommy's air-conditioned bunker -- Jan. 17, 2001; 12a. Police question Tommy's wife regarding bunker -- Jan. 19, 2001; 13. Tommy is declared a murder suspect -- Aug. 6, 2001; 14. Tommy is captured -- Nov. 28, 2001

1. Fresh sectarian clashes break in Tual, Maluku -- April 4 , 1999; 2. Explosion rocks Istiqlal Mosque -- April 19, 1999; 3. Sectarian clashes flare in Halmahera, North Maluku -- May 5, 2000; 4. Forty seven people are injured in Medan church blast -- May 29,2000; 4. Forty four people are dead in fresh N. Maluku violence -- May 29, 2000; 4. Three are injured in Medan blast -- May 29, 2000; 5. Clash breaks out in Saparua, two killed -- Sept. 22, 2000; 9. Bomb blast kills one, injures four in Medan -- Nov. 12, 2000; 10. Blast hits Sutiyoso's official residence in Menteng -- Nov. 17, 2000; 10. Another blast shakes Omni Batavia Hotel -- Nov. 18, 2000; 11. Another blast rocks Medan, injuring two -- Nov. 26, 2000; 12. Bombs confiscated at Taman Mini in Jakarta, a woman arrested -- Jan. 19, 2001; 13. Bomb blast kills one in Surabaya -- Aug. 7, 2001; 14. Explosion and bombs found at the Cikampek-Cirebon railway line -- Dec. 3, 2001; 14a. Fresh conflicts break out in Poso as well-armed well-funded militant group arrives from Java -- November 2001.