What the future holds for the party system

What the future holds for the party system

Indra J. Piliang , Jakarta

Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and Jusuf Kalla (SBY-JK) will
definitely become the next president and vice president of the
Republic of Indonesia for the 2004-2009 period, despite the
support of only three minority political parties -- the
Democratic Party, the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) and the
Crescent Star Party (PBB).

The SBY-JK pairing managed to defeat Megawati Soekarnoputri
and Hasyim Muzadi, which was backed by the Golkar Party, the
Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), the United
Development Party (PPP), the Reform Star Party and the Prosperous
Peace Party (PDS).

Two other political parties with a fair number of seats in the
House of Representatives, the National Awakening Party (PKB) and
the National Mandate Party (PAN), though choosing to remain
neutral in the presidential election runoff, gave tacit support
to the SBY-JK victory.

With the triumph of SBY-JK and the loss suffered by Mega and
Hasyim, is it true that the machines of the political parties
have been crippled as confidently stated by many observers? This
may be the case in connection with the defeat of the Nationhood
Coalition-backed Mega-Hasyim ticket. But the assumption may be
mistaken as this ticket got most of its votes from PDI-P and PDS
members.

What went wrong, then? The first political mistake was
actually made when the Nationhood Coalition was formed to ensure
the victory of Mega and Hasyim. Golkar (along with the PKB) and
PPP failed in the first-round of the presidential election to get
their Wiranto-Salahuddin Wahid and Hamzah Haz-Agum Gumelar
tickets elected. The defection of party voters had already begun
in this round, particularly following a waning in the popularity
of the parties after the April 5 legislative elections. Wiranto
and Salahuddin were "outsiders" to Golkar and the PKB, and so was
Agum to the PPP.

Therefore, when Golkar and PPP leaders tried to force their
voters to elect Mega-Hasyim, a political rebellion took place at
the grassroots level. Besides, with the floating mass concept
promoted during the New Order period, loyal constituencies for
Golkar and the PPP were never properly formed. The agreement
between the top leaders of the parties was not capable of being
fully implemented at the grassroots level. The political feuding
in some regions between PDIP and Golkar supporters hampered
cooperation at the lower levels.

Following the coalition's loss in the presidential election,
can the political parties still be relied on? Sure they can, as
the parties' roles in both the central and local legislatures is
still dominant. The position of a political party's leader is
made much stronger under Law No.23/2002 on legislative
institutions. With the right of a party to recall its members
from the country's legislatures, the independence of legislators
is not as strong as it was previously. Parties are able to
influence the legislative, oversight and budgeting processes in
the legislature. Golkar has shown how real this power is by
ousting nine party executives, including those elected in the
April 5 election.

It is thus misleading to assume a lack of party influence in
the future, especially as regards government policy. The SBY-JK
pairing will obviously be supported by allied parties in running
the government, notably in the Cabinet. The appointment of
ministers from the political parties is needed to provide a
buffer against the pressure from other parties in the House. If
the Nationhood Coalition is consistent with its decision to serve
as the opposition, the government will face significant hurdles
in applying its policies.

However, as the House has no power to dissolve the government,
unless this is done through impeachment, which involves the
Constitutional Court and the People's Consultative Assembly
(MPR), the pressure that can be brought to bear by this
"opposition" will be limited to the budgeting, legislative and
oversight fields. To the public at large, the more the House can
exercise control over the government, the more checks and
balances will be created in the context of the executive-
legislative relationship. The government would no longer be able
to make strategic decisions on a whim.

The implementation of local autonomy on a more extensive scale
will also affect the relationship between the central government
and local administrations. The SBY-JK pairing does not enjoy
majorities on local councils. The nationhood alliance's
domination of the legislatures in most regions only serves to
increase the political problems that SBY-JK will have to deal
with.

Another challenge for the new government revolves around the
election of local chief executives. The provisions of revised Law
No.22/1999 on local administration, which only allow political
parties to nominate candidates for local chief executive
elections, will make it hard for SBY-JK to get their men into the
top jobs at the local level. The effectiveness of the parties
will also be tested during the succession process for 33
governors and 441 regents/mayors and their deputies later on. If
the winning candidates come from the coalition, assuming it
remains solid, the government could well find its work running
into difficulties.

This would serve to reduce the political power and influence
of the new president. The central government will encounter a
number of cases -- also faced by President Megawati -- involving
natural resources management and central-local financial sharing.

But with regard to party agendas over the next 1 to 2 years,
it is worth noting that the leaders of a number of parties will
be replaced. If the influence of SBY-JK on the parties concerned
strengthens, leading to the removal of, for instance, Golkar's
Akbar Tandjung by Fahmi Idris, the central government may enjoy
greater support. Some regional board executives of Golkar are
also known to be loyal backers of SBY-JK, whose taking of over 60
percent of the vote shows the strong cross-party grass roots
support for the pair, even in provinces won by Golkar in the
April 5 legislative elections.

The above description shows how the political parties have not
been weakened, but have not automatically been strengthened
either. Lots of internal and external issues will affect the
roles they play. If these parties are capable of modernizing and
reforming, they will continue to survive in society. Should they
fail, however, the authority of the political parties, and by
extension the country's legislatures, will be considerably
reduced. They are indeed at the crossroads, and their respective
futures depend on how they respond to the problems they face.

The writer is a researcher at the Center for Strategic and
International Studies, and a program manager with the SET
Foundation.