What kind of coalition?

If media public opinion polls with all their inherent imperfections are anything to go by, it should be clear by now that of all the 48 political parties to take part in the June 7 general election, only a handful will emerge strong enough to influence the political decision-making process in this country for the next five years.

Media polls have painted a picture of the Indonesian political landscape as follows: Consistently on top of the list in most polls has been the mass-based Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan), followed by its four main contenders -- the Muslim-based United Development Party (PPP), Golkar, the National Mandate Party (PAN) and the National Awakening Party (PKB) -- in sequences that indicate less consistency.

Many political analysts predict that not one party will emerge strong enough to garner even 40 percent of the votes cast in the upcoming elections -- a prognosis that has contributed to the strong public resentment against the Armed Forces being given 38 non-elected seats in the legislature.

Consider further the fact that 135 representatives of the country's regions, plus 65 representatives of professional groups in the community, will join the 462 elected members and 38 non- elected military representatives in the House of Representatives to form the People's Consultative Assembly -- which is the repository of the people's sovereignty and the nation's highest policy-making body -- and it is clear that it will be an uphill battle for even the biggest political party to singlehandedly push through its policies.

This kind of situation makes it imperative for political parties to make compromises and establish working alliances or coalitions with amenable parties to steer the legislative process toward their objectives.

Amid all of this, there is one particular objective of crucial importance that must not be overlooked. That is the completion of the reform process set in motion by the student protests which culminated in the downfall of president Soeharto on May 21 last year. That process is far from completed, though a tendency exists in the present transitional administration of President B.J. Habibie to consider it to be -- except perhaps for a few finishing touches here and there.

The importance of carrying the reform process through to its very end cannot be underscored enough. Undeniably, progress has been made on several fronts -- freedom of the press and of association being among them. However, much more remains to be done. Corruption, collusion and nepotism remain as ubiquitous as they were during the heyday of Soeharto's New Order regime, with all the efforts to stamp them out seeming more cosmetic than real.

The authorities' respect for basic human rights leaves much to be desired. The continued imprisonment of several dissident youth activists whose guilt was never satisfactorily proven in court is a case in point. The government's apparent disinterest in bringing the many cases of human rights violations to a fair and satisfactory conclusion is another. What all this boils down to is that a strong legal framework must be put in place to ensure not only that the democratic reforms are maintained, but that there will be no regression to authoritarian rule.

For this to be accomplished, a strong reform-oriented government is needed to lay the groundwork for a truly democratic Indonesia which may emerge in, say, five or 10 years. But this can only be achieved if an effective coalition of pro-reform parties can be formed. Since this affects the lives of the entire nation, now and in the future, the public should be informed as early as possible of the choices they should make to achieve these goals.

It is unfortunate that so far the public has been left to guess about the coalitions that may come about. If people are to make the right choices, to either support or oppose reform, the political parties that are at present vying for votes could help by letting people know what kind of coalitions they can expect.