What if Megawati fails to become next president?

By M.M. Bhoernomo

KUDUS, Central Java (JP): Who will be elected the next president? This is the question of most interest after the polls. Although it is likely the next president will be nominated by the political party which collected the largest number of votes in the general election, the problem is that this party is the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) and their presidential candidate is Megawati Soekarnoputri.

Everybody knows that Megawati is the only women presidential candidate, as of now, and some Muslims have rejected the possibility of a female president. Besides, to many observers Megawati remains a questionable presidential candidate because her intellectual capacity has not been put to the test (she once rejected the invitation to attend a debate of potential presidential candidates). Thus, an opportunity still exists for another figure to be elected the next president.

In discussing who will be elected the next president, there are three scenarios which may come about during the upcoming General Session of the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR).

The first scenario is the election of Megawati as president because the National Awakening Party (PKB), the National Mandate Party (PAN) and other non-Islamic-based political parties support her. In this case, the Indonesian Military (TNI) would also support Megawati to prove that it is committed to building a democracy in Indonesia and that it is dedicated to its motto: "The best for the people will be the best to TNI."

There are three major problems which may emerge with the election of Megawati as president. First, her election would meet with very strong opposition, comprising Islamic-based political parties and Golkar Party. This opposition could disrupt the course of Megawati's administration by blocking many political decisions, resulting in political instability and frequent Cabinet reshuffles.

Second, we would see hyperprogressive economic policies, including a major overhaul of the national banking system, a transformation of the country's micro and macroeconomic systems and a change in the map of conglomerates and monopolies.

Third, there would be a change in the attitude of the broader community, who are mostly abangan (nominal Muslims). They would not strictly adhere to the precepts of Islam, which would be indicated by a drop in the intensity of religious services. This is what many santri Muslims who strictly adhere to the precepts of Islam are most worried about. This problem could bring about psychological conflicts between the abangan and santri.

The second scenario in the MPR is the election of Habibie as president on the back of a coalition between Golkar Party, the United Development Party (PPP) and other political parties which support the status quo. Habibie's election would also be supported by Muslims, who would make clear during the General Session of the MPR that they rejected Megawati and supported Habibie.

In this scenario, TNI would take a neutral stance because this neutrality would give it a double advantage. Namely, it would allow TNI to command greater respect and it would also make it appear reform-minded. In other words, it would no longer appear as a supporter of the status quo.

The election of Habibie could also come about because certain parties could "buy votes" during the General Session of the MPR, as many people now fear. It is a possibility the upcoming General Session will be marred by money politics aimed at ensuring a victory for Habibie.

The election of Habibie as president would also bring about three major problems. First, there would be large-scale demonstrations staged by university students demanding that he resign.

Second, there would be large-scale proreform demonstrations at the MPR building because the legislators who elected Habibie would be considered traitors to people's sovereignty and the reform movement.

Third, there would be large-scale rioting because Megawati's supporters, who would feel unfairly treated, would run amok. In this case, they would be angry that the triumph of PDI Perjuangan in the polls was considered useless.

The third scenario in the MPR is the election of an alternative figure as president. This person could be respected Muslim scholar Nurcholish Madjid or another reformist figure. This scenario would come about if Megawati gave way and was satisfied with the position of vice president in order to avoid a political crisis triggered by the rejection of a woman president by Muslims.

If the next president is an alternative figure, there would be three major advantages. First, there would no longer be the dichotomy of status quo-reformist, civilian-military and abangan- santri. In this case, all parties would prioritize the future of the reform agenda. Perhaps former president Soeharto and those considered supporters of the status quo would be forgotten and considered history.

Second, there would appear a new tradition of democracy, which would place the government and the opposition as equal forces. In the future, there would be democratic transitions of national leadership and the country's political stability would grow and there would be no more leaders with their own cult following.

Third, there would be a coalition government so that the number of political parties in the next polls would be reduced. Perhaps there would only be five major parties while smaller parties would voluntarily fuse. In this respect, TNI would voluntarily phase out its dual function.

It may well be that none of these three scenarios will occur in the presidential election because some unforeseen scenario will change the entire script. For example, before the MPR meets unrest erupts because people are disappointed with the outcome of the polls. In this context, TNI would have a strong argument for declaring an emergency situation and taking over power.

It is possible this scenario could occur because losing political parties will fail to accept the results of the polls. There is now a tendency on the part of losing political parties not to accept the elections results, which, admittedly, were marred by violations, including money politics.

Also, there are certain groups, status quo supporters guilty of corruption, collusion and nepotism during the Soeharto regime, for example, who prefer TNI take over power under the pretext of an emergency situation. With TNI holding power, those involved in corruption, collusion and nepotism would believe they were safe from prosecution.

There has been widespread suspicion even prior to Soeharto's resignation that the riots in many places were manufactured to allow TNI to take over power.

Many have harbored this suspicion because not even one of the alleged provocateurs believed to have masterminded these riots has been arrested. And prior to the upcoming General Session of the MPR, all anybody can do is guess.

The writer is chairman of the Forum for the Care of the Nation.