What if Megawati fails to become next president?

What if Megawati fails to become next president?

By M.M. Bhoernomo

KUDUS, Central Java (JP): Who will be elected the next
president? This is the question of most interest after the polls.
Although it is likely the next president will be nominated by the
political party which collected the largest number of votes in
the general election, the problem is that this party is the
Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) and
their presidential candidate is Megawati Soekarnoputri.

Everybody knows that Megawati is the only women presidential
candidate, as of now, and some Muslims have rejected the
possibility of a female president. Besides, to many observers
Megawati remains a questionable presidential candidate because
her intellectual capacity has not been put to the test (she once
rejected the invitation to attend a debate of potential
presidential candidates). Thus, an opportunity still exists for
another figure to be elected the next president.

In discussing who will be elected the next president, there
are three scenarios which may come about during the upcoming
General Session of the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR).

The first scenario is the election of Megawati as president
because the National Awakening Party (PKB), the National Mandate
Party (PAN) and other non-Islamic-based political parties support
her. In this case, the Indonesian Military (TNI) would also
support Megawati to prove that it is committed to building a
democracy in Indonesia and that it is dedicated to its motto:
"The best for the people will be the best to TNI."

There are three major problems which may emerge with the
election of Megawati as president. First, her election would meet
with very strong opposition, comprising Islamic-based political
parties and Golkar Party. This opposition could disrupt the
course of Megawati's administration by blocking many political
decisions, resulting in political instability and frequent
Cabinet reshuffles.

Second, we would see hyperprogressive economic policies,
including a major overhaul of the national banking system, a
transformation of the country's micro and macroeconomic systems
and a change in the map of conglomerates and monopolies.

Third, there would be a change in the attitude of the broader
community, who are mostly abangan (nominal Muslims). They would
not strictly adhere to the precepts of Islam, which would be
indicated by a drop in the intensity of religious services. This
is what many santri Muslims who strictly adhere to the precepts
of Islam are most worried about. This problem could bring about
psychological conflicts between the abangan and santri.

The second scenario in the MPR is the election of Habibie as
president on the back of a coalition between Golkar Party, the
United Development Party (PPP) and other political parties which
support the status quo. Habibie's election would also be
supported by Muslims, who would make clear during the General
Session of the MPR that they rejected Megawati and supported
Habibie.

In this scenario, TNI would take a neutral stance because this
neutrality would give it a double advantage. Namely, it would
allow TNI to command greater respect and it would also make it
appear reform-minded. In other words, it would no longer appear
as a supporter of the status quo.

The election of Habibie could also come about because certain
parties could "buy votes" during the General Session of the MPR,
as many people now fear. It is a possibility the upcoming General
Session will be marred by money politics aimed at ensuring a
victory for Habibie.

The election of Habibie as president would also bring about
three major problems. First, there would be large-scale
demonstrations staged by university students demanding that he
resign.

Second, there would be large-scale proreform demonstrations at
the MPR building because the legislators who elected Habibie
would be considered traitors to people's sovereignty and the
reform movement.

Third, there would be large-scale rioting because Megawati's
supporters, who would feel unfairly treated, would run amok. In
this case, they would be angry that the triumph of PDI Perjuangan
in the polls was considered useless.

The third scenario in the MPR is the election of an
alternative figure as president. This person could be respected
Muslim scholar Nurcholish Madjid or another reformist figure.
This scenario would come about if Megawati gave way and was
satisfied with the position of vice president in order to avoid a
political crisis triggered by the rejection of a woman president
by Muslims.

If the next president is an alternative figure, there would be
three major advantages. First, there would no longer be the
dichotomy of status quo-reformist, civilian-military and abangan-
santri. In this case, all parties would prioritize
the future of the reform agenda. Perhaps former president
Soeharto and those considered supporters of the status quo would
be forgotten and considered history.

Second, there would appear a new tradition of democracy, which
would place the government and the opposition as equal forces. In
the future, there would be democratic transitions of national
leadership and the country's political stability would grow and
there would be no more leaders with their own cult following.

Third, there would be a coalition government so that the
number of political parties in the next polls would be reduced.
Perhaps there would only be five major parties while smaller
parties would voluntarily fuse. In this respect, TNI would
voluntarily phase out its dual function.

It may well be that none of these three scenarios will occur
in the presidential election because some unforeseen scenario
will change the entire script. For example, before the MPR meets
unrest erupts because people are disappointed with the outcome of
the polls. In this context, TNI would have a strong argument for
declaring an emergency situation and taking over power.

It is possible this scenario could occur because losing
political parties will fail to accept the results of the polls.
There is now a tendency on the part of losing political parties
not to accept the elections results, which, admittedly, were
marred by violations, including money politics.

Also, there are certain groups, status quo supporters guilty
of corruption, collusion and nepotism during the Soeharto regime,
for example, who prefer TNI take over power under the pretext of
an emergency situation. With TNI holding power, those involved in
corruption, collusion and nepotism would believe they were safe
from prosecution.

There has been widespread suspicion even prior to Soeharto's
resignation that the riots in many places were manufactured to
allow TNI to take over power.

Many have harbored this suspicion because not even one of the
alleged provocateurs believed to have masterminded these riots
has been arrested. And prior to the upcoming General Session of
the MPR, all anybody can do is guess.

The writer is chairman of the Forum for the Care of the
Nation.