What if Bush were to face poll in Asia?

Tom Plate The Straits Times Asian News Network Bangkok

If you have a nicely developed sense of humor, American democracy is funny.

Forget about the hilarious 2000 presidential election, in which the candidate with the most votes nationwide lost the race to the United States Supreme Court after being bushwhacked in Florida. Just take a look at the U.S. primary silly season, that began last Monday in Iowa.

Even though the Iowa presidential caucuses can have a significant impact on who is going to be the next president of the United States, only Iowans, of course, got to vote in it.

The Republican issue is already in the refrigerator: Unopposed, incumbent President George W. Bush sailed through the Iowa test, just as he did four years ago even when he wasn't the incumbent. Iowans still like Bush, a lot.

It's a good thing for the administration that no caucuses or primaries are being held in, oh, South Korea, Indonesia or even Japan. Asia would be a tough poll for Bush.

In Japan, a recent sampling of public opinion showed only 13 percent like Bush. This is almost as terrible a figure as the Japanese once pinned on hapless former prime minister Yoshiro Mori, the least popular in memory. But the Japanese are far from terminally anti-American - or even anti-leader: The same poll showed that 73 percent hold a favorable view of the U.S. in general; and today, incumbent Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's approval rating rarely dips below a healthy 50 percent.

In South Korea, the frustration is perhaps less personal. Koreans are tired of being America's geopolitical groupies. It can get nasty: One poll showed Koreans regard America as a more serious threat to peace than their northern Stalinist neighbor.

In parts of Southeast Asia, anti-Americanism is frighteningly high, especially in sprawling Indonesia (the country with the world's largest Muslim population). Eighty-three per cent, in one poll, took an unfavorable view of the U.S. last year, double a 2002 polling figure. To many Indonesians, America seems the bully and Bush the bully-in-chief: The Iraq war is very unpopular.

Who cares what foreigners think of us, you say? Fine - but then how can America and its allies wage a coherent campaign against terrorism if the hearts and minds of moderate Muslims are not safely in the good guys' camp?

Sure, Asians could keep their unfriendly views to themselves. After all, they have no more right to a say in the Iowa caucuses or the New Hampshire primary than, well, New Yorkers. Asia has other things in common with New York, of course: Whoever becomes president greatly impacts both places.

But were Asia to have its own U.S. presidential primary, would Bush necessarily be the least favorite choice of all the possible candidates? Governor Howard Dean was the early pre-Iowa front runner, but the Democratic race - with four contenders - is far from a done deal after this one test.

One possible eventual winner remains Richard Gephardt, who has repeatedly denounced the economic impact of globalization and would seem to have internalized every one of its discontents. Such huffiness is popular in many local U.S. constituencies, core drivers of our primaries.

The Missouri Democrat has never met a protectionist U.S. tariff barrier that he didn't hold near and dear to his primary bosom. On the sole issue of trade liberalization (a big one), Gephardt makes Bush - notwithstanding the latter's fumbles on the steel tariff issue and Cancun trade talks - look smart.

The enlightened vote in Asia might well take George over Dick if it comes to that. Asian economies are dependent on booming export sales, and America remains the big mark for the world's exporters. A return to protectionism would be devastating, especially to Asia.

An imaginary South Korean, Japanese or Indonesian presidential primary would not necessarily bring good news for Bush. But as Asians begin to zero in on the views of Bush's opponents, they, like the good people of America, might want to look carefully before they leap.

The writer is a UCLA professor.