What can S'poreans expect from the next PM?

Ho Khai Leong, The Straits Times, Asia News Network, Singapore

As Singaporeans grapple with the pain of a massive restructuring of the economy, they will now also have to ponder issues related to the ascendance of a new prime minister.

The question is not who, or when and how the transition will take place, but what the new administration will bring, and what difference it would make.

Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong's announcement at the National Day Rally on Sunday that Lee Hsien Loong was his choice as a successor came as no surprise, but still, it was the first time the nation heard him comment on the succession issue at length.

It learnt that a consensus was reached on Lee, but only through "quiet soundings" from members of parliament and ministers; that the top leadership realized his uncompromising public persona made some Singaporeans "uncomfortable"; that many have urged Goh to stay on; and that the handover will take place by 2005.

Political watchers expected Goh to announce changes to the Central Provident Fund in the annual speech, which has traditionally been used as a forum to highlight important national issues, but few anticipated he would talk about stepping down.

As he paid tribute to older ministers, and praised some of the junior ones, the audience began tensely to anticipate a "farewell" announcement.

When he finally said, "I am not stepping down yet", a sigh of relief seemed to pass through the auditorium.

The tone of Goh's speech, however, seemed to indicate that he is more than prepared for the transition.

In 1990, it was after a long period of planning and gestation that the previous prime minister Lee Kuan Yew handed over the baton to Goh.

In fact, Lee, now Senior Minister, had wanted the transfer to take place two years earlier, but Goh said he needed two more years to prepare.

Now, Goh's announcement comes at a very trying time, in the middle of an economic downturn.

Post-Sept. 11 and SARS, Singaporeans are experiencing record unemployment rates and major policy changes.

To many, for a captain who has been in charge for 13 years to retire during such a difficult and demanding period is not a pleasant thought.

One should recognize, however, that Singapore's major economic and social policies are in place.

Appointed successor Deputy Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong has been at the center of the decision-making process.

In addition to the deputy premiership, he is also Minister for Finance and chairman of the Monetary Authority of Singapore and of the Economic Review Committee.

In this context, while more policy changes are inevitable, they will most likely be incremental rather than radical. Continuation of policies in the new administration can be assured.

What some find disquieting, however, is Lee's style of management and leadership.

After 13 years of an administration led by a man who sought to make Singapore "kinder and gentler", they want to know if the future will be any better.

Political liberalization, more consultative government structures and social welfare reforms have been associated with Goh's leadership style.

What changes would Lee bring to these areas?

If past performance is any indicator, an approach that is, in Goh's words, "uncompromising, no-nonsense and tough" can be expected.

There is more to note about the "discomfort" of Singaporeans.

If Goh was "wooden", Lee is perceived as "aloof".

If Goh was perceived as unable to fill the shoes of his predecessor SM Lee, then the younger Lee probably fills them too well for Singaporeans to see a difference.

The choice of the new prime minister is determined by top leaders in the People's Action Party (PAP), not by popular vote. An inner circle of colleagues decides who should be "first among equals".

In 1990, the choice, for SM Lee at least, was between Dr Tony Tan and Goh. The "disagreement" then was between SM Lee, who preferred the former, and PAP MPs, who preferred the latter.

Now, there does not appear to be a choice -- Lee Hsien Loong is the front- runner almost by default given the deliberate grooming process in the past five years.

No serious contender has emerged among other ministers; at least the public perception is that no one has.

Whatever "disagreement" there is now is between the PAP leadership and the Singaporean populace.

Ultimately, the level of confidence of the public will matter only to the extent that the new prime minister cares to adjust his style accordingly -- to be more people-oriented, less detached, and to be seen to be "one of us", not "one of them".

PAP leaders have acquired an elitist image despite their commitment to grassroots work in the public housing heartlands.

In the future, they will have to work even harder with the new prime minister in charge.

Also, the prime minister-in-waiting needs to quickly name his deputy or deputies, just as Goh did, to ease the uncertainties and reservations that some Singaporeans have about future leadership transitions.

At least for now, the political succession in Singapore designed by Goh is "on course".

We expect the sharing of power by a team in the Government and the predictability of the transition process to continue.

The writer, author of Shared Responsibilities, Unshared Power: The Politics Of Policy-making, is a researcher at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore.