What are the implications of Megawati's decision?

What are the implications of Megawati's decision?

Megawati Soekarnoputri, deposed leader of the Indonesian
Democratic Party (PDI), put weeks of intense speculation to rest
when she announced Thursday she would abstain from voting in the
general election. Cornelis Lay, a political science lecturer at
Gadjah Mada University in Yogyakarta, looks at what the decision
will mean when the country goes to the polls on May 29.

YOGYAKARTA (JP): As expected, Megawati Soekarnoputri will
abstain from voting in this week's elections. This woman, held up
as a symbol of political morality during the winding down of the
campaign, qualified her decision by stating it was made as an
individual.

Her accompanying directive to supporters to exercise their
voting rights according to their conscience did not detract from
the gravity of her move -- a political boycott against the
election and all it entails.

It was her final political resort after the failures of her
lawsuits against the powers that be for the government-endorsed
congress which replaced her at the party's helm.

Her stance, at once declaring her own objections to the
elections while cautioning her supporters to make their own
decision, may seem like straddling the political fence. Yet this
is precisely her shrewd ploy against any legal retaliation.

The authorities will find it difficult to charge her for the
offense of encouraging others not to vote (even under the
"rubber" definitions of subversion) through her carefully worded
statement.

On the other hand, Megawati's individual decision is a clear
hint to her supporters to follow suit. Although her May 22
written instruction gave freedom to her supporters to vote for
any political party, this served as merely a token nod to others.

There is no doubt that Megawati's supporters will follow her
decision. Megawati has often relied on symbolism to convey
messages to her supporters, and she is fully aware that a
personal decision holds more sway over her supporters than an
official party stand.

Her move has effectively negated predictions that Golkar and
the United Development Party (PPP) would garner more votes due to
PDI's splintering. Expectations of a drastic vote increase for
PPP in some regions of Java have been dashed. The spontaneous
alliance between Megawati's supporters and the PPP is crumbling.

Megawati's supporters may express their allegiance through
various means, but the majority of them will no doubt pierce all
three party symbols on the ballot to render the vote void.

This will increase the number of people who abstain from
voting (known as the "white group" or Golput) commensurate with
the number of Megawati supporters.

Yet there is no doubt the utmost measures will be made through
government channels to ensure the number of abstainers does not
increase, or at least is not seen to increase. As Megawati is a
staunch opponent of the government, a notable rise in Golput
numbers would be extremely embarrassing to those in power.

In Indonesian political culture, which does not permit blatant
opposition, this development could not be tolerated.

The official line will be that a rise in non-voters was only
notable in those areas known as Megawati strongholds; Bali, parts
of East and Central Java and Yogyakarta. This, or so goes the
reasoning, is evidence that golput was localized and Megawati's
claims to nationwide support were untrue.

There is even the possibility the government will balk at
announcing figures on Golput if they are too high.

Another telling ramification of Megawati's decision is that it
put paid to rumors (circulated in leaflets in Jakarta) that her
supporters and PPP members were conspiring to topple President
Soeharto.

With her announcement, Megawati has also relieved PPP leader
Ismail Hasan Metareum of tremendous pressure caused by the
rumors. She also saved herself from the enmity, or open
hostility, expected to arise with Metareum if the issue came to a
head.

One potentially perilous slip in Megawati's written
declaration is the encouragement to her supporters to act as
private witnesses during voting. This will place her supporters
in direct contact with government officials, the organizers of
the elections.

No doubt the government will be on full alert during the
election and Megawati's supporters will prepare themselves well.
We all hope that no violence will result from any encounter
between the two. After all, we have witnessed time and again the
futility of violence.

Controversy -- Page 2

Exodus -- Page 3

Editorial -- Page 4