What are the implications of Megawati's decision?

Megawati Soekarnoputri, deposed leader of the Indonesian Democratic Party (PDI), put weeks of intense speculation to rest when she announced Thursday she would abstain from voting in the general election. Cornelis Lay, a political science lecturer at Gadjah Mada University in Yogyakarta, looks at what the decision will mean when the country goes to the polls on May 29.

YOGYAKARTA (JP): As expected, Megawati Soekarnoputri will abstain from voting in this week's elections. This woman, held up as a symbol of political morality during the winding down of the campaign, qualified her decision by stating it was made as an individual.

Her accompanying directive to supporters to exercise their voting rights according to their conscience did not detract from the gravity of her move -- a political boycott against the election and all it entails.

It was her final political resort after the failures of her lawsuits against the powers that be for the government-endorsed congress which replaced her at the party's helm.

Her stance, at once declaring her own objections to the elections while cautioning her supporters to make their own decision, may seem like straddling the political fence. Yet this is precisely her shrewd ploy against any legal retaliation.

The authorities will find it difficult to charge her for the offense of encouraging others not to vote (even under the "rubber" definitions of subversion) through her carefully worded statement.

On the other hand, Megawati's individual decision is a clear hint to her supporters to follow suit. Although her May 22 written instruction gave freedom to her supporters to vote for any political party, this served as merely a token nod to others.

There is no doubt that Megawati's supporters will follow her decision. Megawati has often relied on symbolism to convey messages to her supporters, and she is fully aware that a personal decision holds more sway over her supporters than an official party stand.

Her move has effectively negated predictions that Golkar and the United Development Party (PPP) would garner more votes due to PDI's splintering. Expectations of a drastic vote increase for PPP in some regions of Java have been dashed. The spontaneous alliance between Megawati's supporters and the PPP is crumbling.

Megawati's supporters may express their allegiance through various means, but the majority of them will no doubt pierce all three party symbols on the ballot to render the vote void.

This will increase the number of people who abstain from voting (known as the "white group" or Golput) commensurate with the number of Megawati supporters.

Yet there is no doubt the utmost measures will be made through government channels to ensure the number of abstainers does not increase, or at least is not seen to increase. As Megawati is a staunch opponent of the government, a notable rise in Golput numbers would be extremely embarrassing to those in power.

In Indonesian political culture, which does not permit blatant opposition, this development could not be tolerated.

The official line will be that a rise in non-voters was only notable in those areas known as Megawati strongholds; Bali, parts of East and Central Java and Yogyakarta. This, or so goes the reasoning, is evidence that golput was localized and Megawati's claims to nationwide support were untrue.

There is even the possibility the government will balk at announcing figures on Golput if they are too high.

Another telling ramification of Megawati's decision is that it put paid to rumors (circulated in leaflets in Jakarta) that her supporters and PPP members were conspiring to topple President Soeharto.

With her announcement, Megawati has also relieved PPP leader Ismail Hasan Metareum of tremendous pressure caused by the rumors. She also saved herself from the enmity, or open hostility, expected to arise with Metareum if the issue came to a head.

One potentially perilous slip in Megawati's written declaration is the encouragement to her supporters to act as private witnesses during voting. This will place her supporters in direct contact with government officials, the organizers of the elections.

No doubt the government will be on full alert during the election and Megawati's supporters will prepare themselves well. We all hope that no violence will result from any encounter between the two. After all, we have witnessed time and again the futility of violence.

Controversy -- Page 2

Exodus -- Page 3

Editorial -- Page 4