Weighing the pluses and minuses of candidates

Weighing the pluses and minuses of candidates

Jusuf Wanandi

Megawati/Hasyim Muzadi and Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono/Jusuf Kalla
are the two finalists in the presidential elections. It will no
longer be a "beauty contest" where appearances is the decisive
factor. It is also not about programs and platforms. This was
also the case in the legislative elections in April and the first
round of presidential elections in July. This time around the
presidential candidates have also gotten away with generalities
and general statements.

On the surface there does not appear to be any basic
differences between the two candidates. Yet, this election will
not be unimportant. It will be critical for the state and the
society because it will determine how Indonesia will be organized
and developed. What the leaders believe in is vital for the
future and modernization of Indonesia.

Megawati and Hasyim Muzadi are an attractive team because they
are pluralist in their political outlook. They do recognize the
diversity of Indonesia, and therefore, they believe that society
can be developed only on the basis of democracy and social
justice. This can be seen from a closer examination of their
personal history, struggle and achievements. Megawati has not
completely achieved her goals in the last three years as
President, and people are somewhat disappointed in her efforts.
She has not delivered on eradicating corruption, creating
employment and enforcing the law.

However, what is to her credit is that she has brought back
political stability, maintained macroeconomic stability and an
economic growth rate of 4 to 5 percent. More importantly, her
government has contributed to democratic consolidation by having
managed a series of successful, peaceful and fair elections. For
sure this is not enough, and more should be done before the
people are really convinced about her. Lately she has become more
pro-active and is showing great concern for the common people.
This should not only be a ploy of the elections campaign. She
really has to show that she is willing to listen to the people's
criticism and can change.

An important indication of this will be her choice of her
choice of the people she will have in her Cabinet. She has been
able to craft a grand coalition of mainstream political parties,
not only to work for a victory in the election, but more
importantly to get a majority in the legislature. She has yet to
announce her new team. She must be willing to dismiss most of the
members of her current Cabinet. It is critical that she brings in
credible professionals, especially on the economy, to tackle
corruption and to restore the rule of law as well as human
resources development. Names such as Sri Mulyani, Mari Pangestu,
Ir. Gen. I Made Pastika, and the professor Azyumardi Azra have
been mentioned as her possible candidates for the above posts.
They are acceptable to the public and would greatly boost her
image.

The other team, of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and Jusuf Kalla,
has aired a lot of new ideas, but coming from the challenger,
they seriously lack specificity in the policies and programs they
will implement when elected. Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, commonly
known as SBY, has been very popular because he is a new face,
quite eloquent, and astute in his tactics in the general
elections. His rise has demonstrated that democracy is beginning
to take root in Indonesia. People are no longer dependent solely
on the patronage of political parties or mass organizations. It
should be noted, however, that as is the case in developed
countries, political parties continue to play an important role.
In addition, the history of the leaders will be a defining factor
to understand what they are going to do in the future if elected.

Bambang came from the military, and has gone through the ranks
under Soeharto's presidency and authoritarian rule. As such he
has been a part of the system and has participated in some of the
actions that continue to haunt the military: East Timor, the
attack on PDI headquarters (referred to as the July 27 incident),
and the May 1998 riots in Jakarta, including the killing of
students at Trisakti campus and Semanggi bridge.

During his tenure as the security czar, he was not able to
prevent or overcome many regional conflicts. His ministerial
colleagues considered his leadership weak and hesitant. Decisions
were very difficult to get from him, especially when he had to
stick his neck out. Allowing himself now to be surrounded by so
many senior military peers has therefore created a lot of
apprehensions over whether he can overcome their pressure, e.g.
on the various freedoms that are of critical importance to
democracy, such as freedom of the press and civilian control of
the military. He has been flip-flopping on the role of religion,
and this has negatively affected his credibility.

The history and policies of his vice presidential candidate
and his potential economic czar, Jusuf Kalla, is another worry
for part of the public. He is seen as being narrowly
nationalistic in his economic policies. He is not very positive
on the role of foreign investment. He has prematurely aired "pro
affirmative" action for the "pribumi", or native Indonesians,
emulating the "bumiputra" policies that Malaysia has now
abandoned. Many Chinese-Indonesians are nervous about Kalla's
ideas and proposed policies. While their numbers are very small,
their views have some weight domestically and in the East Asian
region due to their established networks.

In addition to these personality factors, there is the concern
that if elected, SBY will not have the numbers in the legislature
that will enable him to govern effectively. In the final
analysis, the choices may be starker than they first appear.
Megawati/Hasyim are a known quantity and quality. SBY/Kalla are
full of question marks. Those who want change have no guarantee
that they will get the kind of change they long for.

The writer is a co-founder and member of the Board of Trustees,
Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)