Weighing the pluses and minuses of candidates

Jusuf Wanandi

Megawati/Hasyim Muzadi and Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono/Jusuf Kalla are the two finalists in the presidential elections. It will no longer be a "beauty contest" where appearances is the decisive factor. It is also not about programs and platforms. This was also the case in the legislative elections in April and the first round of presidential elections in July. This time around the presidential candidates have also gotten away with generalities and general statements.

On the surface there does not appear to be any basic differences between the two candidates. Yet, this election will not be unimportant. It will be critical for the state and the society because it will determine how Indonesia will be organized and developed. What the leaders believe in is vital for the future and modernization of Indonesia.

Megawati and Hasyim Muzadi are an attractive team because they are pluralist in their political outlook. They do recognize the diversity of Indonesia, and therefore, they believe that society can be developed only on the basis of democracy and social justice. This can be seen from a closer examination of their personal history, struggle and achievements. Megawati has not completely achieved her goals in the last three years as President, and people are somewhat disappointed in her efforts. She has not delivered on eradicating corruption, creating employment and enforcing the law.

However, what is to her credit is that she has brought back political stability, maintained macroeconomic stability and an economic growth rate of 4 to 5 percent. More importantly, her government has contributed to democratic consolidation by having managed a series of successful, peaceful and fair elections. For sure this is not enough, and more should be done before the people are really convinced about her. Lately she has become more pro-active and is showing great concern for the common people. This should not only be a ploy of the elections campaign. She really has to show that she is willing to listen to the people's criticism and can change.

An important indication of this will be her choice of her choice of the people she will have in her Cabinet. She has been able to craft a grand coalition of mainstream political parties, not only to work for a victory in the election, but more importantly to get a majority in the legislature. She has yet to announce her new team. She must be willing to dismiss most of the members of her current Cabinet. It is critical that she brings in credible professionals, especially on the economy, to tackle corruption and to restore the rule of law as well as human resources development. Names such as Sri Mulyani, Mari Pangestu, Ir. Gen. I Made Pastika, and the professor Azyumardi Azra have been mentioned as her possible candidates for the above posts. They are acceptable to the public and would greatly boost her image.

The other team, of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and Jusuf Kalla, has aired a lot of new ideas, but coming from the challenger, they seriously lack specificity in the policies and programs they will implement when elected. Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, commonly known as SBY, has been very popular because he is a new face, quite eloquent, and astute in his tactics in the general elections. His rise has demonstrated that democracy is beginning to take root in Indonesia. People are no longer dependent solely on the patronage of political parties or mass organizations. It should be noted, however, that as is the case in developed countries, political parties continue to play an important role. In addition, the history of the leaders will be a defining factor to understand what they are going to do in the future if elected.

Bambang came from the military, and has gone through the ranks under Soeharto's presidency and authoritarian rule. As such he has been a part of the system and has participated in some of the actions that continue to haunt the military: East Timor, the attack on PDI headquarters (referred to as the July 27 incident), and the May 1998 riots in Jakarta, including the killing of students at Trisakti campus and Semanggi bridge.

During his tenure as the security czar, he was not able to prevent or overcome many regional conflicts. His ministerial colleagues considered his leadership weak and hesitant. Decisions were very difficult to get from him, especially when he had to stick his neck out. Allowing himself now to be surrounded by so many senior military peers has therefore created a lot of apprehensions over whether he can overcome their pressure, e.g. on the various freedoms that are of critical importance to democracy, such as freedom of the press and civilian control of the military. He has been flip-flopping on the role of religion, and this has negatively affected his credibility.

The history and policies of his vice presidential candidate and his potential economic czar, Jusuf Kalla, is another worry for part of the public. He is seen as being narrowly nationalistic in his economic policies. He is not very positive on the role of foreign investment. He has prematurely aired "pro affirmative" action for the "pribumi", or native Indonesians, emulating the "bumiputra" policies that Malaysia has now abandoned. Many Chinese-Indonesians are nervous about Kalla's ideas and proposed policies. While their numbers are very small, their views have some weight domestically and in the East Asian region due to their established networks.

In addition to these personality factors, there is the concern that if elected, SBY will not have the numbers in the legislature that will enable him to govern effectively. In the final analysis, the choices may be starker than they first appear. Megawati/Hasyim are a known quantity and quality. SBY/Kalla are full of question marks. Those who want change have no guarantee that they will get the kind of change they long for.

The writer is a co-founder and member of the Board of Trustees, Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)