Weather forecasts

Weather forecasts have always been taken as serious as horoscopes and astrologers. Weathermen -- now called climatologists -- predict that the Earth's temperature will increase next century, to between 2 degrees Celsius and 4 degrees Celsius.

Nobody, who has ever tried to follow a weather forecast, believes weathermen, even when they predict the next day's temperature in their own towns, but lots of people believe they are right about the whole planet, 100 years in advance.

First, scientists got their money -- from weapons makers -- crying: "The Russians are coming. Fund research!" The Russians are no longer coming. They changed the tune, "The weather is changing. Fund research!" Insurance companies pay scientists to know, for instance, if higher temperatures would change the frequency, paths or strength of hurricanes. Such changes would affect their liabilities.

They have to walk a narrow line. They have to show evidence for governments to take action, being, at the same time, inconclusive enough to attract additional funding. Scientific articles tend to end with catch phrases: "And this shows how little we know about this subject," "Of course additional data can be discovered..." "Those challenges need closer attention ..." or "It is an intriguing idea but we do not know how deep it is," Which means: More funds, please.

Of course, the more alarming their predictions, the easier the funds come. One may have noticed recent attempts (power lines, cellular phones and computer monitor radiation could cause cancer) to create a scare in several businesses.

They are responsible for the costs of legal orders to remove asbestos in schools; depreciation in prices of real estate, by studies related to radioactivity; cost of life increase; industry forced by the Clean Air Act; and for jobs destroyed because of it forced the rescue of animals. May be developed countries can afford that. In the developing ones we call it misplaced priorities.

Next, a look at the profile of environmentalism supporters.

OSVALDO COELHO

Bandung, West Java