Weather and climate

Easter Island is famous as the site of hundreds of huge stone statues which stare inscrutably out to sea, some weighing up to 270 tons. When "discovered" by a Dutch explorer in 1772, Easter Island was a barren wasteland without a tree or bush higher than three meters. The island's inhabitants were impoverished, the topsoil washed away, the land unable to support more than minimal crops.

But the island was not always thus. Archeological studies show that for 30,000 years it held a subtropical forest. When Polynesians, the first human inhabitants, arrived about 500 AD, they found abundant native fowl, fertile land for crops and plenty of trees for making boats and houses and rollers for moving the enormous, useless statues.

Pollen records show that by the year 800 AD, forest destruction was well underway. When palm trees became extinct by 1400 AD, there was no way to make boats, so the people couldn't fish. The soil eroded, crops subsequently failed and people starved, even turning to cannibalism. The population crashed to one-fourth its peak, and those who remained lived a bleak existence.

This devastation was a result of the islanders' failure to take care of their environment, especially the precious forests.

Human beings today face many of the same problems caused by degradation of the environment but those who try to sound the alarm are too often vilified by the likes of Mr. Osvaldo Coelho who has written several shrill letters to The Jakarta Post recently. I wonder if there were people like him on Easter Island in the year 1,000 AD who shouted down those who warned that the forests were being destroyed?

Mr. Coelho implies that "environmentalists" are charlatans because some companies make money from environmental protection, but far more companies make money from destroying the environment than from protecting it.

He hoots that meteorologists can't predict tomorrow's weather, so how can they predict climate 50 years from now?

Weather is a short term phenomenon and cannot be predicted with certainty. Even so, people routinely get storm warnings in time to save countless lives. Climate is a long term, and statistical trends can be seen. Scientists agree that the earth is warming; they only disagree over the speed of the trend.

Environmentalists, like everyone else, should strive to be accurate. But it is far better to err on the side of caution when the consequence is what happened to Easter Island.

GARY GENTRY

Jakarta