Watching Iraq

Although the deal brokered by UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan has averted the immediate prospect of war in the Persian Gulf, it is far too early to herald an end to the recent crisis over Iraq or the long-running conflict between the West and Saddam Hussein. On paper, the agreement appears watertight. Access to disputed sites will be unconditional and unrestricted. If Iraq complies, Mr. Annan's mission will have been a triumph. Skillful diplomacy with the crucial backing of American military might will have won out.

However, it is when Saddam is cornered that his guile and cunning are most keen. His actions have won a four-month moratorium on weapons inspections, giving him vital time to cover his tracks. Furthermore, the latest crisis has earned him vocal support from across the Arab world and beyond.

Universal sympathy for the long-suffering Iraqi people who have borne the brunt of sanctions imposed by the UN was partly responsible for a split in the Security Council over the best way to deal with Iraq. Mr. Annan's agreement that sanctions will be expeditiously lifted is all to the good if it means that food and medical supplies will reach a population where 32 percent of under-fives are malnourished. But Washington is right to concentrate on ensuring full Security Council agreement for military action if Saddam returns to his habitual cat-and-mouse tactics.

Only when the peace deal is tested will Saddam's true intentions be revealed. Maintaining forces in the Gulf on alert will be very expensive. Military experts are trying to calculate how long the U.S. can maintain a battle-ready force in the area. No doubt Saddam is doing the same.

If Mr. Annan's diplomatic skills provide a lasting solution to the problem, he will have done the world a great service and vastly enhanced the credentials of the UN in the process. But, given Saddam's track record, it is far too early to let him off the hook.

-- South China Morning Post