Watch out for self-interested, short-term coalitions

Political observer Pratikno looks at, among others things, the confusing picture of changing coalitions. He teaches at the Gadjah Mada University in Yogyakarta.

Question: Vice President Megawati Soekarnoputri seems to have gained strong support from Islam-oriented political parties to replace President Abdurrahman "Gus Dur" Wahid. Do you think she can build a strong government if she becomes president?

I don't think so. Those political parties tried everything to block Megawati's candidacy in the presidential race in 1999. Now we see how the United Development Party's Hamzah Haz said that his party would support Megawati's presidency due to a state of emergency, while the National Mandate Party's (PAN) Amien Rais even argued that PAN is not an Islamic party, which is why it has no problem with a woman president.

If Megawati takes over the presidency, she could be treated just the way Gus Dur is being treated now.

You sound quite pessimistic.

Yes ... (When Gus Dur was elected), people thought that Gus Dur would be able to build a strong government with his constitutional rights. But he had to share his first Cabinet lineup with the other political guarantors and proved to generate a ineffective government because of the double loyalty of some of his ministers.

His second Cabinet lineup was composed of more people from political parties, but this weakened the government, which is prone to political attacks from legislators.

So Megawati's current support from the above political parties is no guarantee that they will maintain their support when she is president. There is also the question of what kind of agreement would meet the interest of Megawati's camp and those of Muslim political parties.

So what could Megawati do if she did take over?

It is impossible for her to have a strong government because there is no majority party. In this transition era, the only way for her is to build a strong coalition with the other parties on the grounds of an absence of a majority party.

If she fails to do so, she inevitably will face similar difficulties that Gus Dur has now when he has to negotiate case by case with the House while at the same time many nonsubstantial issues are highly politicized to undermine the government ... (which) depletes the energy of the government.

Gus Dur has failed to build a strong coalition and now his power depends only on the presidential institution.

Do you think Gus Dur's presidency will soon end?

Gus Dur's collapse is a simple matter, judging from the current mood among legislators. The Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) seems to have a clear stance against Gus Dur and, even if it abstained in an impeachment arena, (Gus Dur's) the National Awakening Party (PKB) won't win the vote.

The problem is that the political arena outside the House of Representatives should also be taken into account. We know Gus Dur is a charismatic figure among followers of the largest Muslim organization, Nahdlatul Ulama (NU). (Those) unseating Gus Dur will have to face the resistance of NU followers.

The country's politics still depends on both formal arenas in and outside the House. A change of national leadership is too dangerous if only decided in the House. The two arenas should be synchronized to avoid chaos.

The safest way would be Gus Dur's voluntary resignation.

Can the President still overcome the current crisis?

That is almost impossible since his government hasn't been able to work effectively and efficiently to uphold the law and eradicate corruption cases, as well as conducting trials on past corruption cases.

Gus Dur should also rebuild a political coalition which has been torn apart. But I doubt he can do that again considering his unchanged style of leadership.

The President has told Megawati to be "proactive" in taking an initiative in day-to-day politics. Will this help?

That is not effective anymore; the decree (delegating tasks to the Vice President) did not work. The fault could be on the Vice President's side for being too passive.

I suggest that the presidential decree be renewed; it must guarantee that Gus Dur is not involved in day-to-day decisions, leaving this to the government (bodies) and Megawati. Gus Dur should act as head of state and Megawati as head of government.

To avoid constitutional constraints the arrangement should be conducted at the presidential level between Megawati and Abdurrahman Wahid.

What is your observation on the current turmoil?

We have constitutional and cultural problems. Our constitution doesn't firmly arrange how governing political parties and opposition parties should be constructed in a political system. This leads to a very liquid coalition among political parties to respond to short-term cases.

That's why we see different political coalitions every day, without any clear distinction on which are the government political parties and which are the opposition ones.

Besides generating weak political institutions in the House, this condition also makes political parties reluctant to think about how to build stronger and more permanent coalitions.

We also see the absence of appropriate morality and ethics in our political arena which is badly needed in this transition era. A weak institution in a transitional era should be compensated by a high morality in politics.

Gus Dur's government should not have to bear political attacks from the House if politicians have prioritized the nation's interest above their groups.

The last and fundamental problem is that it is not clear which and who are the reformist parties and figures and which and who are not, as they are mixed in almost all big political parties such as PAN, PDI Perjuangan and even PKB.

There are many figures, including politicians, bureaucrats and businesspeople from the past who chair strategic posts in those parties. This inevitably influences the parties' political stance on various strategic cases, including short-term coalitions.

We can no longer delay the set up of a truth and reconciliation commission in dealing with the variety of past (crimes), including (those related to) former president Soeharto and many people allegedly involved in human rights violations and corruption cases.

The commission's aim should be prioritized to give certainty to the past players; that way the political scene would be more clear (on who the "reformists" are). (Asip A. Hasani)