Watch out for self-interested, short-term coalitions

Watch out for self-interested, short-term coalitions

Political observer Pratikno looks at, among others things, the
confusing picture of changing coalitions. He teaches at the
Gadjah Mada University in Yogyakarta.

Question: Vice President Megawati Soekarnoputri seems to have
gained strong support from Islam-oriented political parties to
replace President Abdurrahman "Gus Dur" Wahid. Do you think she
can build a strong government if she becomes president?

I don't think so. Those political parties tried everything to
block Megawati's candidacy in the presidential race in 1999. Now
we see how the United Development Party's Hamzah Haz said that
his party would support Megawati's presidency due to a state of
emergency, while the National Mandate Party's (PAN) Amien Rais
even argued that PAN is not an Islamic party, which is why it has
no problem with a woman president.

If Megawati takes over the presidency, she could be treated
just the way Gus Dur is being treated now.

You sound quite pessimistic.

Yes ... (When Gus Dur was elected), people thought that Gus
Dur would be able to build a strong government with his
constitutional rights. But he had to share his first Cabinet
lineup with the other political guarantors and proved to generate
a ineffective government because of the double loyalty of some of
his ministers.

His second Cabinet lineup was composed of more people from
political parties, but this weakened the government, which is
prone to political attacks from legislators.

So Megawati's current support from the above political parties
is no guarantee that they will maintain their support when she is
president. There is also the question of what kind of agreement
would meet the interest of Megawati's camp and those of Muslim
political parties.

So what could Megawati do if she did take over?

It is impossible for her to have a strong government because
there is no majority party. In this transition era, the only way
for her is to build a strong coalition with the other parties on
the grounds of an absence of a majority party.

If she fails to do so, she inevitably will face similar
difficulties that Gus Dur has now when he has to negotiate case
by case with the House while at the same time many nonsubstantial
issues are highly politicized to undermine the government ...
(which) depletes the energy of the government.

Gus Dur has failed to build a strong coalition and now his
power depends only on the presidential institution.

Do you think Gus Dur's presidency will soon end?

Gus Dur's collapse is a simple matter, judging from the
current mood among legislators. The Indonesian Democratic Party
of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) seems to have a clear stance against
Gus Dur and, even if it abstained in an impeachment arena, (Gus
Dur's) the National Awakening Party (PKB) won't win the vote.

The problem is that the political arena outside the House of
Representatives should also be taken into account. We know Gus
Dur is a charismatic figure among followers of the largest Muslim
organization, Nahdlatul Ulama (NU). (Those) unseating Gus Dur
will have to face the resistance of NU followers.

The country's politics still depends on both formal arenas in
and outside the House. A change of national leadership is too
dangerous if only decided in the House. The two arenas should be
synchronized to avoid chaos.

The safest way would be Gus Dur's voluntary resignation.

Can the President still overcome the current crisis?

That is almost impossible since his government hasn't been
able to work effectively and efficiently to uphold the law and
eradicate corruption cases, as well as conducting trials on past
corruption cases.

Gus Dur should also rebuild a political coalition which has
been torn apart. But I doubt he can do that again considering his
unchanged style of leadership.

The President has told Megawati to be "proactive" in taking an
initiative in day-to-day politics. Will this help?

That is not effective anymore; the decree (delegating tasks to
the Vice President) did not work. The fault could be on the Vice
President's side for being too passive.

I suggest that the presidential decree be renewed; it must
guarantee that Gus Dur is not involved in day-to-day decisions,
leaving this to the government (bodies) and Megawati. Gus Dur
should act as head of state and Megawati as head of government.

To avoid constitutional constraints the arrangement should be
conducted at the presidential level between Megawati and
Abdurrahman Wahid.

What is your observation on the current turmoil?

We have constitutional and cultural problems. Our constitution
doesn't firmly arrange how governing political parties and
opposition parties should be constructed in a political system.
This leads to a very liquid coalition among political parties to
respond to short-term cases.

That's why we see different political coalitions every day,
without any clear distinction on which are the government
political parties and which are the opposition ones.

Besides generating weak political institutions in the House,
this condition also makes political parties reluctant to think
about how to build stronger and more permanent coalitions.

We also see the absence of appropriate morality and ethics in
our political arena which is badly needed in this transition era.
A weak institution in a transitional era should be compensated by
a high morality in politics.

Gus Dur's government should not have to bear political attacks
from the House if politicians have prioritized the nation's
interest above their groups.

The last and fundamental problem is that it is not clear which
and who are the reformist parties and figures and which and who
are not, as they are mixed in almost all big political parties
such as PAN, PDI Perjuangan and even PKB.

There are many figures, including politicians, bureaucrats and
businesspeople from the past who chair strategic posts in those
parties. This inevitably influences the parties' political stance
on various strategic cases, including short-term coalitions.

We can no longer delay the set up of a truth and
reconciliation commission in dealing with the variety of past
(crimes), including (those related to) former president Soeharto
and many people allegedly involved in human rights violations and
corruption cases.

The commission's aim should be prioritized to give certainty
to the past players; that way the political scene would be more
clear (on who the "reformists" are). (Asip A. Hasani)