Washington and lucky coincidences!

Salama Nematt Common Ground News Service - Partners in Humanity Washington

It seems that the opposite campaign in what was describes as "democratic expansion" in the Middle East was tenaciously launched and with a greater thrust than a Tsunami. The changes were celebrated early: repression, increasing arrests for the reformists and the opposition in the countries of the region, a greater control over the media and harder prohibition of public gathering etc.

The constitutional amendment in Egypt, considered to be one of the "achievements" of the reform process, became a weapon in the hands of the authority, granting the ruling regime a new legitimacy, after guaranteeing that the reformists will boycott the referendum, while the rest will be washed out from the competition, via some well-know means.

In Lebanon, the feeble participation in the election and the traditional sectarian quotas, came to put out the heated enthusiasm of those yearning for change.

In parallel, the Israeli maneuvers sought to evade from earlier commitments with regard to the implementation of the "Roadmap" by undermining the government of the elected PM Mahmoud Abbas and his peaceful agenda, despite all the hopeless efforts of the American President to support Abbas during his visit to Washington.

In Iraq, the terrorists and their natural allies in the region joined efforts in order to amputate the Iraqi elections from its meaning and appeal to the peoples of the region. The Arab governments tell their people, who are thirsty for reform: "this is the democracy promised by America. Do you want more?"

As expected, this opposite campaign was opposed by a motionless reaction in Washington: Motionless in facing the organized revolution against all what was achieved since Saddam Hussein's regime overthrown, the absence (or riddance) of Yasser Arafat and the assassination of Rafiq Al Hariri.

Most certainly, what is happening in the region today is considered to be a regression and a challenge facing Bush's administration, as well as anyone who believes that the most powerful state in the world is serious and sincere in pushing for the reform agenda in both the region and the world.

It would bolster the convictions that the recent developments towards reform were only the product of unintentional coincidences by the American administration. The Iraqi elections took place because Saddam Hussein's regime was overthrown and after the insistence of Al Sistani on holding these elections to give the Shiite majority the legitimacy they deserve in assuming governance. Since Bush's administration launched its war to topple Saddam and his regime and not to establish democracy, the Iraqi elections came without any American drive.

However, Washington saw certain benefits in these elections, not the least, since they bestowed legitimacy to the war, even though in a retroactive effect after the failure in finding any WMD. The Palestinian elections took place only after Israel removed the restrictions imposed on the process; after President Arafat passed away.

In Lebanon, the Syrian mistakes and the assassination of Rafiq Hariri, paved the way for the Independence Intifada, yet, one cannot take too lightly the importance of what happened in Iraq in encouraging the Lebanese opposition to take clearer stances in their opposition to the Syrian presence in Lebanon.

In other words, one can say that Bush won the first round on the Middle East simply by coincidence.

Most certainly, after the second round, Washington will need more than just coincidence, should it be serious in pushing for its stated regional agenda.

Salama Nematt is the Washington correspondent for the daily Al-Hayat.