Warming of Australia-RI ties may be temporary

By Michael Christie

SYDNEY (Reuters): The first visit in 26 years to Australia by an Indonesian leader breathed some warmth back into ties that have been chilly since Canberra led international peacekeepers into East Timor two years ago.

But Australia-based Indonesia watchers said on Wednesday that the thaw in relations between the world's fourth most populous nation and the vast island continent of just 19 million people to its south may be little more than temporary.

If President Abdurrahman Wahid is forced out by his political opponents at an impeachment hearing in August, the symbolism of his June 25-27 visit could melt into insignificance.

Will the visit end an underlying hostility in Jakarta towards Australia?

"The short answer is no," said Michael van Langenberg, head of Southeast Asian studies at the University of Sydney.

"He's here, from the Canberra point of view, to establish some links in the hope that, or assuming that, he stays. Then presumably there's something to be gained from it. If he doesn't stay, there's probably not very much to be gained," he said.

Australian officials hailed Abdurrahman's trip as the start of a "new era". Stability in the world's most populous Muslim nation is crucial to Australian security and trade.

In 1949, Australia became the first foreign country to recognize the Republic of Indonesia after its independence.

Yet ties have been touchy since Indonesia invaded the former Portuguese colony of East Timor in 1975.

They disintegrated when Australia took the lead in a multinational peacekeeping force after East Timor voted for independence from Jakarta in 1999 and pro-Indonesia militias went on the rampage, killing more than 1,000 people.

Many nationalist groups in Jakarta blame Australia for East Timor's secession.

Political analysts say Abdurrahman had never shared that view and was always regarded as a friend of Australia.

The same cannot necessarily be said for his estranged Vice President Megawati Soekarnoputri, who most people expect to succeed Abdurrahman should he be impeached by legislators over two financial scandals and his chaotic 20-month rule.

Legislators begin the impeachment process on Aug. 1.

Megawati, daughter of Indonesia's first president Sukarno, is unfamiliar with Australia.

She is regarded by many foreign analysts as closer to the military than Abdurrahman and likely to take a tougher stance on independence movements in Aceh and Irian Jaya, which could lead to human rights concerns in the West.

Ultimately, she is seen as less likely to make relations with Australia a priority.

"If you have to draw a contrast (between Abdurrahman) and Megawati, it's quite stark," said Chris Manning, head of the Indonesia studies project at the Australian National University.

At the same time, Manning said he did not share the view of others that Megawati was a "rabid nationalist".

Paul Kelly, the international editor of The Australian newspaper, noted in a commentary on Wednesday that Megawati was on hand to say goodbye to Abdurrahman when he left Indonesia for Australia, a gesture interpreted in Canberra as her support for the trip.

Kelly argued that the visit had brought about a psychological change in relations that ran deeper than Abdurrahman's personal friendliness towards Australia.

"It terminates the mindset that Indonesia is a nation to which our leaders visit and crawl while Indonesian leaders refuse to stain their dignity by coming south to Australia and facing protesters," Kelly wrote.

In the event, Abdurrahman faced just one low-key protest in Canberra.