War in Iraq might lead to reshuffling in Persian Gulf

Georgi Engelgardt Laboratory of Crisis Monitoring RIA Novosti Moscow

The first results of the "jihad against skyscrapers" are rather obvious: The humiliating strike against the only modern superpower, the deaths of thousands of civilians and hundreds of military personnel in America, the global positioning of a new great force -- radical Islam in the shape of the World Islamic Front for Jihad Against the Jews and Crusaders (al-Qaeda).

The United States responded to a new challenge in a sufficiently dignified manner: They crushed the terrorist stronghold -- the Taliban Afghanistan -- and thus affirmed its global superpower status.

Bush's Afghan crusade was, in a way, helpful to Russia -- it generally weakened Osama bin Laden and, therefore, affected his subordinates in the Caucasus. The elimination of a local terrorist leader Hattab serves as a good example of that. However, the success so far derives mostly from the overall weakness of the foe.

It was after the events of Sept. 11 that the American elite started to show clear signs of unhappiness about the excessive U.S. dependence on the Persian Gulf and about the growing ambitions of Saudi Arabia in the region. During July and August the change in American attitude toward Saudi Arabia became obvious, judging by the statements of the U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and the direct accusations toward the former bulwark of American influence in the East of ties with the Islamic terrorists.

Influential republicans talk more and more loudly about changing the traditional routes of the global oil flow as a foundation for a new security infrastructure in the Northern Hemisphere. They are talking about a complete political remapping of the Persian Gulf region and giving Russia a significant share on the American market of energy carriers.

According to these plans, Russian oil should substitute Arabic oil as a strategic resource for the United States and, possibly, Western Europe, therefore rendering harmless Arabs' main weapon -- oil.

Washington quickly puts the words into action -- in October the Russian-American Oil Forum is planned to be held in Houston. It's not surprising that the Saudi sheiks, scared that their assets in the States might be frozen, are starting to pull their capital from the American market.

They are showing their long-existing dislike of the U.S. and are bluntly undermining the American economy. Why, then, instead of striking against Saudi Arabia, native to 16 out of 19 terrorists involved in the acts of Sept. 11, the U.S. designs the plans to attack Iraq, an apparent outsider?

The reason is not in the personal enmity of the Bush clan toward Saddam Hussein and not in the despotism of the Iraqi tyrant or his attempts to avoid the UN inspections. Riyadh rarely shows off its influence in the world, but its real weight in the world affairs, including the American and the European ones, does not permit the U.S. to confront the Saudi kingdom openly.

As to Iraq, according to many analysts, it has recently become one of the main mechanisms of manipulating the world oil prices in favor of Saudi Arabia. The issue is the machinations with the quotas on Iraqi oil according to the "oil in exchange for food" scheme, and smuggling of oil through its neighbor countries.

Besides, the Persian Gulf oil magnates use Baghdad as one of the main channels of financing the global structures of the radical Islam, including the notorious al-Qaeda. It's indicative that up till now the U.S has been avoiding the only accusation toward Iraq that could have really undermined Saddam's image -- that he gave al-Qaeda access to the weapons of mass destruction being developed in Iraq.

What's coming after Saddam? He could be substituted only by a similarly, if not more, despotic dictator. Knowing the U.S. preoccupation with the image, it won't work in America's favor and, therefore, is hardly possible. Most likely, Iraq is going to be de facto or even de jure dissected into several quasi- independent parts, which might lead to a complete political reshaping of the Persian Gulf region.

The escalation of the conflict between the U.S. and the radical Islam will not leave Russia aside. Probably that's why the Persian Gulf countries have sharply increased their interest in Russia -- Iraq insists on giving Russia huge investment contracts and Saudi Arabia hints on the possibility of taking into consideration Russia's interests in the OPEC's pricing policy.